China Great Wall: Official decrease in export tax rebates for lithium-ion batteries, continued optimism for downstream demand.

China Great Wall released a research report, stating that on April 1st, China officially reduced the export tax rebate for lithium-ion batteries from 9% to 6%, with the subsequent reduction scheduled for January 1, 2027. Against the backdrop of recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the main focus of the lithium carbonate supply-demand contradiction for the whole year is expected to shift from supply disruptions in the first half of the year to overseas demand exceeding expectations in the second half. Since March, with the price of lithium carbonate around 150,000 yuan/ton, downstream buyers have shown a strong willingness to replenish their inventories on dips. Overall, it is optimistic about the strong price support in the first half of the year under the supply disruptions and the potential for higher price elasticity in the second half due to potential demand exceeding expectations. Key points from China Great Wall: Zimbabwe Continued disruptions in the supply of lithium ore, with the export ban on lithium concentrates not yet lifted in Zimbabwe. If the ban continues for an extended period, it will significantly restrict global lithium ore supply increments. Australia The Australian Parliament has passed legislation authorizing the country's export credit agency to purchase, store, and sell commodities, including critical minerals such as rare earths, in physical form. Energy shortages triggered by the Middle East conflict are putting pressure on Australia. According to official information from the Australian government, as of March 31, the country's diesel reserves would last for 29 days. Demand: Energy storage winning bid prices increase month-on-month In February 2026, domestic energy storage lithium iron phosphate bid 26.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 52% and a month-on-month increase of 14%; in terms of prices, in February 2026, the bid price for 2h energy storage systems was 0.5 yuan/Wh, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, and an increase of 6% month-on-month. In addition, on April 1, 2026, China officially reduced the export tax rebate for lithium-ion batteries from 9% to 6%, with the subsequent reduction scheduled for January 1, 2027. In the continued high prosperity of the downstream market, downstream companies are expected to have an active replenishment attitude throughout the year. Risk warning Energy storage demand falls short of expectations, new energy vehicle demand falls short of expectations, overseas mine supply exceeds expectations, and there is a certain risk of data lag in the report.