Trump issues another "final ultimatum" to Iran and escalates threats, crude oil surges above $111.

As US President Donald Trump sets a new final deadline for Iran and threatens to strike Iran's power plants and other infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, oil prices have surged. Brent crude climbed above $111 per barrel, while WTI crude approached $115 per barrel. In a series of strongly-worded social media posts, Trump vowed to bring a "hellish strike" to Iran. Iran has rejected the latest demands, and currently, the key waterway remains mostly closed except for a few ships. The oil market has been thrown into severe turmoil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The conflict has caused an unprecedented supply shock and is evolving into a global energy crisis. Oil and refined oil prices have soared, exacerbating inflation pressure, dragging down economic growth, and burdening businesses and consumers. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) warned after a weekend meeting that even if the conflict ends, the damage to energy facilities will have a long-term impact on oil supply. The oil-producing countries have approved an increase in production quotas - considering the current restrictions on Persian Gulf oil exports, this move is more of a signal of intent. Trump has been sending conflicting messages on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, causing unease among investors. He has at times claimed that the war is about to end while threatening to escalate the strikes (including against civilian infrastructure), showing indecision. Meanwhile, Trump has set self-imposed deadlines multiple times but often failed to follow through. Trump has announced plans for a press conference at 1pm local time on Monday and mentioned a final deadline of 8pm Eastern Time on Tuesday on social media, but has not provided any specific details. On March 26, Trump gave Iran a 10-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which expires on Monday night. Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains at the core of the current conflict, connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, especially in Asia. Iran has been controlling this waterway, allowing only a few ships to pass, including a recent French container ship, a Japanese oil tanker, and ships from Malaysia and Pakistan. Iran announced last Saturday that Iraq would be exempt from its restrictions on controlling the strait, which could help increase oil shipments. However, an Iraqi official was cautious, stating that whether oil exports could increase depends on whether shipping companies are willing to enter this critical waterway. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing increasingly severe impacts on energy users, with some countries experiencing fuel shortages at gas stations. According to reports, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that countries need to resist hoarding oil and fuel due to shortages. Fuel supplies at multiple airports in Italy have already been restricted. Ahead of the Easter long weekend, the physical oil market has shown signs of extreme tension. The price of spot Brent crude trading in the North Sea, a key global physical oil pricing benchmark, surged to over $140 per barrel, reaching its highest level since 2008. Over the weekend, the conflict continued. Israel, which conducted military operations against Iran at the end of February with the US, claimed to have struck dozens of targets inside Iran. Meanwhile, Iran continued to launch fierce attacks on neighboring countries, hitting the headquarters of the Kuwait National Petroleum Company. Additionally, the US military successfully rescued a pilot who went missing after their warplane was shot down by Iran last Friday. Trump posted on the "True Social" platform that the rescue operation involved dozens of US military aircraft and targeted a crew member of an F-15E aircraft.