Zhongjin: Refined operation for 26 years is the key to the catering industry. Focus on the effect of part brands adjustment and new models.

Zhongjin released a research report stating that since the second half of 2025, the differentiation of dining brands has continued. After the decline in the "takeaway war," the profit capability of stores has been differentiated, depending on the same-store and actual revenue levels. It is expected that in 2026, various tea drink brands will pay more attention to product innovation and reshape the healthy channel structure, with some improvements in casual dining. Precision operation in 2026 will be the focus of the industry, focusing on the adjustments of some brands and the effects of new models. Specifically: 1) In terms of beverages, it is estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the same-store year-on-year growth of GUMING/ CHABAIDAO/ HeyTea/ Naixue/ Luckin/ Mixue exceeded 20%/ close to 20%/ double-digit/ 3%/ 1%/ flat increase, and in the first quarter of 2026, GUMING/ CHABAIDAO/ HeyTea achieved double-digit growth year-on-year in the same-store sales, while the daily per-store revenue of Naixue increased by 2-3% year-on-year. Since the decline in the "takeaway war," the profit capability of stores has been differentiated, depending on the same-store and actual revenue levels. It is expected that in 2026, various tea drink brands will pay more attention to product innovation and reshape the healthy channel structure (such as GUMING adjusting the takeaway pricing to protect the actual revenue rate, coffee contributing additional incremental income, and expecting double-digit growth in store profits year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026; Mixue will upgrade product quality and supply chain comprehensively; CHABAIDAO will adjust the menu and price structure for different channels and strengthen the dine-in scene with categories such as coffee). 2) In terms of dining, GUOQUAN plans to continue achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in the same-store sales through multiple measures in 2026 (estimated to be low double-digit growth in January and February); in the first quarter of 2026, mainland stores of TAE2 achieved low double-digit growth year-on-year, and the company expects the profit margin of TAE2 stores in 2026 to increase by about +2 percentage points to around 16%; benefiting from the Spring Festival peak season and differentiated measures, the turnover rate of HAIDILAO increased year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Focus on the effects of brand adjustments and validation of new models It is estimated that the capital expenditure of HAIDILAO Hai Xian Da Pai Dang is 10-13 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 40-50%, current turnover of 5-6, differentiated profit margin, and room for precision improvement in the future; it may open dozens of stores this year. GUOQUAN plans to invest approximately 200,000 yuan in equipment and decoration for large stores, and has adjusted hundreds of stores since the beginning of this year to achieve about 50% growth in store efficiency year-on-year. Special Hai will optimize the cost structure while ensuring staff benefits and customer experience. Naixue plans to focus on opening stores directly in advantageous cities in 2026 and cautiously promote franchise business. HELENS is piloting a new model with "low investment, low cost, low average spending." Xiabu plans to systematically reduce costs and improve efficiency and explore the "Xiabu Mini" model. Targeted aspects Recommendations for GUMING (01364), YUM CHINA (09987), HAIDILAO (06862), GREEN TEA GROUP (06831), and suggest paying attention to Luckin (LKNCY.US), MIXUE GROUP (02097), GUOQUAN (02517), DPC DASH (01405), JIUMAOJIU (09922). Risk factors Same-store sales and profit margins are lower than expected; deterioration of competitive landscape; development of new models falls short of expectations.