BOC International: Gives the commercial space industry a "outperform" rating, focusing on investment opportunities such as the application of 3D printing in new technologies.
This line focuses on the core components of rockets and satellites, as well as investment opportunities brought about by the application of 3D printing technology.
Bank of China International released a research report stating that in the context of the scarcity of satellite orbits and frequency resources, the competition among countries for satellite frequency and orbit resources has entered into a white-hot state. With the maturity of large reusable rocket technology, the trillion-level commercial space market has opened up, giving the industry a strong market rating. The bank focuses on core components of rockets and satellites, as well as investment opportunities brought by the application of 3D printing technology.
Bank of China International's main viewpoints are as follows:
The "new enclosure movement" of space infrastructure opens up a trillion-level commercial aerospace market
Satellite orbits and frequencies are strategic resources constrained by physical laws and international regulations, with considerable scarcity. The competition among countries for satellite frequency and orbit resources has reached a white-hot state. With the maturity of reusable rocket technology and the reduction of launch costs, the number of global rocket launches is rapidly increasing. By 2025, the global number of rocket launches will reach 329 times, an increase of 25.1% compared to 2015, reaching the highest value since the first human space launch in 1957. According to the 2025 Space Report released by the US Space Foundation, the global space economy reached $612 billion in 2024, with commercial space revenue accounting for 78% at $480 billion. The global commercial space industry has been growing rapidly from 2015 to 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 7.7%. In the future, with the further intensification of competition among various countries for low-earth orbit resources and the gradual release of demand for space computing power, 6G, and other emerging technologies, the global commercial space market is expected to further expand.
China has the capability to cover the entire aerospace industry chain, and multiple drivers point to a promising future
China's aerospace industry has evolved from nothing to being a significant global force. With the release of the "National Civil Space Infrastructure Medium and Long-term Development Plan (2015-2025)" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense in 2015, China took a crucial step towards commercialization in the field of space operations. Currently, China has formed the capability to cover the entire commercial aerospace industry chain and is in a crucial development stage of going from "1 to 10". In the future, with the combined effects of downstream demand, policies, funding, and other factors, China's commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a period of rapid development. According to the Institute for Future Industries, the Chinese commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a golden development period from 2025 to 2030, with the market size reaching 8 trillion RMB by 2030.
Rapid development of commercial aerospace, core components and 3D printing technology are expected to benefit
In terms of core components, rockets need to focus on engines and arrow body structures, which have the highest cost proportion. Satellites need to focus on payload, propulsion, and power systems. In terms of new technology, metal 3D printing technology has inherent advantages in the aerospace field, which are well suited to the increasing demands for integrated, complex, lightweight, and structurally functional aerospace components. Metal 3D printing technology has significant cost and time advantages. Overseas, the application of 3D printing technology in aerospace is progressing rapidly, with the US already achieving system-level or whole-rocket applications of rocket engines and entire rockets. While some companies in China are conducting research on 3D printing of rocket and satellite components, they are still in the early stages of research on component-level printing technology. There is still a gap in technology level and engineering application compared to foreign countries. Therefore, the application scope and penetration rate of 3D printing are expected to continue to increase in the future.
Main risks faced in the rating
Risks of technological progress falling short of expectations; Risks of fluctuations in downstream market demand; Risks of lower-than-expected capital investment; Risks of industry policy falling short of expectations; Risks of intensified competition.
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