Oil prices skyrocketing combined with disruptions in air routes, many Asian countries are rushing to stock up on aviation coal in preparation for "supply cuts".
After the conflict in Iran raised international oil prices, signs of multiple Asian countries airlines stockpiling aviation kerosene continue to intensify, reflecting the growing supply pressure faced by the aviation industry.
After the escalation of Iran conflict pushed up international oil prices, the trend of hoarding aviation fuel in multiple Asian countries continues to worsen, reflecting the increasing supply pressure that the aviation industry is facing.
The South Korean Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport released a statement on Wednesday stating that some airlines in the country have received notifications of fuel restrictions from certain countries. The government is currently discussing whether to redirect aviation fuel originally intended for export to the domestic market. The President of Philippine Airlines stated in an interview that this Southeast Asian country may soon implement fuel rationing. The Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam has also issued a warning that a fuel supply gap may occur starting in early April, leading to a reduction in flight frequencies.
With the ongoing escalation of Iran conflict and high oil prices, the challenge of procuring aviation fuel is further exacerbating the aviation industry's difficulties. Although there is currently no widespread fuel shortage in various countries, if the Strait of Hormuz remains substantially blocked, Asia will become the region at highest risk of fuel scarcity.
Richard Nuttall, President of Philippine Airlines, stated in an interview on Wednesday: "Some countries have already begun to explicitly limit the amount of fuel that can be taken on by inbound flights. If countries do not plan ahead and prepare a strategy to address this issue, they are undoubtedly ignoring a core risk."
This crisis is rapidly spreading, and governments around the world are shifting from a market-oriented export model to a fuel security strategy. China and Thailand have both tightened controls on exports of refined oil products to ensure their strategic reserves; Australia has temporarily lowered the minimum reserve obligation for diesel and gasoline by 20% due to a continuous decline in imports.
The South Korean government is currently intensifying efforts to formulate emergency plans for extreme situations in the Middle East region, including studying the feasibility of releasing strategic oil reserves as suggested by the International Energy Agency. South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun Cheol stated earlier this month that the country's strategic oil reserves could meet demand for approximately 208 days.
Korean Air, South Korea's largest flagship airline, stated that it is closely monitoring the situation. Its subsidiary budget airline Jin Air stated that it has not yet received official notifications of fuel restrictions from abroad, and its current fuel reserves are sufficient to sustain stable operations. Asiana Airlines declined to comment on the situation.
Following the outbreak of the conflict, Philippine President Marcos became the first Southeast Asian leader to declare a national state of energy emergency. In an interview on Tuesday, he revealed that the country's airlines have been forced to carry enough fuel for the entire round trip, and if negotiations with countries such as China and Russia on the supply situation do not progress, flight cancellations are "highly likely to become a reality."
Additionally, the Philippine Transportation Secretary stated in an interview that the government will support airlines in procuring aviation fuel and assist companies in obtaining petroleum contract performance guarantees.
Analysts from Citigroup, led by Anthony Yuen, pointed out in a research report: "The surge in aviation fuel prices compounded with disruptions in Middle East air routes has created inflationary pressure for air travel. The impact on demand may suppress tourist travel, bringing downward risks to economies in Asia that are highly dependent on the tourism sector."
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