CICC: Maintains "Outperform" rating on AIA (01299) with a target price of HK$105.7.

Zhongjin released a research report stating that they are maintaining a "outperform industry" rating for AIA (01299), with a target price of 105.7 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to a forecasted embedded value of 1.6 times in 2026, representing a 25% upside from the current price. The group announced a new $1.7 billion share buyback plan, with $1 billion being an additional buyback after reviewing the capital situation. Based on positive business trends and a clear capital management plan, Zhongjin expects shareholder returns to continue to improve. The bank stated that AIA's new business value (VONB) in 2025 is expected to grow by 15% to $5.516 billion, which is in line with the bank's expectations; annualized new premiums (APE) are expected to increase by 9% to $9.484 billion; after-tax operating profit per share (OPAT) is expected to increase by 13% to $0.68 per share based on actual exchange rates; and final dividends are expected to increase by 10% to $1.93 Hong Kong dollars. The report mentioned that the Chinese Hong Kong market has strong growth momentum, with VONB increasing by 28% to $2.256 billion year-on-year, with strong demand from customers and mainland visitors, increasing by 21% and 35% respectively. AIA China focuses on high-quality growth, with VONB increasing by 2% to $1.24 billion last year, accelerating to 14% in the second half of the year, with new agents and active agents increasing by 14% and 8% respectively, supporting better growth in protection business than industry peers. VONB achieved a year-on-year growth of over 20% in the first two months of this year, and the company will continue to focus on the protection and long-term savings needs of high-net-worth clients. The Thai market showed strong performance, with VONB increasing by 13% to $993 million, and the value rate increasing by 11.4 percentage points to 110.9%.