CITIC SEC: The wind power industry welcomes a super MEGA opportunity with high prosperity + and structural .

CITIC SEC released a research report recently, stating that during the recent closing sessions of the "Two Sessions", "green fuel" and "AI synergy" were included in the government work report, corresponding to China's strategies for energy independence and AI competition. With the dual rigid high-growth demands for the production of green fuel and the supply of green electricity for data centers, it is expected that by 2030, these two demands will likely drive a demand for nearly 465GW of wind turbines, boosting the super prosperity of the wind power sector. It is recommended to focus on wind power companies with green fuel production capacity, as well as wind turbine manufacturers with the capability to enter the European market. According to calculations, wind power as a core source of green electricity accounts for over 53% of the cost structure. Wind power companies transitioning to green fuel operators have significant upstream cost advantages, aligning with the country's energy security strategy. The reasonable PE central estimate is expected to rise. It is anticipated that valuations will increase from the traditional wind turbine manufacturing PE ratio of 20 times to over 30-35 times for core operators of national energy security. Leading enterprises can obtain a valuation premium of up to 40 times PE. The valuation central and profit central of wind turbine companies will rise together, with the green energy strategy and AI synergy strategy driving high profitability and high certainty in downstream demand, ushering in a highly prosperous "+ structural " super MEGA opportunity for the wind power industry. CITIC SEC's main points are as follows: - The positioning of green fuel is crucial for national energy security, promoting the replacement of crude oil. According to disclosures from the National Energy Administration, by 2025, China's domestic crude oil production for industrial enterprises above a certain scale will be only 216 million tons, while the total import of crude oil will reach 578 million tons, with apparent consumption of crude oil at 791 million tons. The foreign dependence rate on crude oil is as high as 72.7%, a 0.7 percentage point increase year-on-year, putting pressure on energy independence and control. With the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts in Iran, the urgency of the energy independence strategy has increased. According to statistics from the Orange Institute, by the end of 2025, the total planned capacity for domestic green methanol (including signed agreements) will reach 648.6 million tons, with a total planned capacity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) close to 8 million tons. If all the planned capacity is realized, it can replace the functional equivalent of 53.34 million tons of crude oil, accounting for 9.2% of the crude oil import volume in 2025, covering the phased goal of 10% substitution for imported crude oil. The landing of production capacity within the short term of 2-3 years and the release of performance have strong certainties. According to the calculations of the Orange Institute, to achieve the replacement of all imported oil functions, it would require nearly 2000GW to 2700GW of new energy installed capacity. The demand for wind power installed capacity driven by the 10% crude oil substitution requirement will generate nearly 250GW of demand. - The continuous synergy of AI and electricity drives the demand for green electricity in data centers. Qin Haiyan, Secretary-General of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, pointed out that the deep integration of computational power and green electricity is the trend in the industry. The electricity demand for data centers is expected to grow rapidly. By 2025, the scale of data center racks in China has exceeded 9 million, expected to surpass 33 million by 2030. In the next five years, the annual additional electricity consumption of data centers will exceed 380 billion kWh, corresponding to the need for 175GW of wind power installed capacity. As the preparations for the national data group approach, it is estimated that the actual energy consumption of data centers in China in 2030 will exceed the previously expected 400 billion kWh (corresponding to 46GW of load), with actual electricity demand expected to reach 60-65GW, requiring close to 190GW of wind power capacity. - The accelerating demand for AI synergy in Europe, the cancellation of wind power supply chain tariffs in the UK, is beneficial to Chinese wind power companies. The British government announced the formal cancellation of 33 wind power component import tariffs from April 1, 2026, with the wind turbine blade tariff reduced from 6% to 0 and the cable tariff reduced from 2% to 0. This move is aimed at releasing approximately 22 billion in investment, accelerating the deployment of offshore wind power, reflecting the strong local electricity demand and a significant gap in the local wind power supply chain. It also opens up an important incremental market for the Chinese wind power industry. According to statistics from the European Data Center Association (EUDCA), the electricity consumption of European data centers is expected to reach around 38GW by 2030 and further increase to 40GW by 2031, corresponding to a demand for nearly 85GW of additional wind power. If Chinese companies can capture 30% of the market share, the incremental demand brought by European AI synergy alone can contribute approximately 25GW of high-profit offshore wind power orders to domestic enterprises around 2030. Wind power is a flexible and profitable link in the scenarios of green fuel + AI synergy. The electrolyzers in green fuel hydrogen production and data centers have extremely high requirements for power supply reliability, with a stability requirement of 99.99%. Current mainstream green electricity supply solutions in China and Europe all adopt wind power overcapacity + energy storage modes to achieve stable power supply, with 1GW load requiring 3GW of wind power demand. From an economic perspective, wind power can achieve an average annual utilization hours of 2200 hours, with a wind-power-to-storage capacity ratio of only 1:0.3~0.5 in the wind-storing route compared to 1:1~2 in the solar-storage route, showing a significant gap in capital expenditure for energy storage between the two routes. According to calculations, the cost of wind storage electricity is 0.03~0.05 yuan lower than solar storage, with a cost advantage of 5%~15%. Leveraging significant economic advantages, wind power has become the mainstream choice for green fuel projects and green electricity supply for data centers. With the dual drive of green fuel and AI synergy in China and Europe, it is estimated that by 2030, there will be nearly 465GW of additional wind turbine demand. Risk Factors: - Slow progress in China's energy independence strategy implementation - Insufficient investment in China's AI competition - Europe's slow opening of the wind power market than expected.