CrowdWisdom Consultation: Storage prices in the first quarter of 2026 have exceeded expectations, with NAND prices increasing by more than 70% compared to the previous quarter.

On March 17th, Qunzhi Consulting released a price indicator for storage in the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, the global storage chip market exhibited a significant feature of prices rising beyond expectations and intensified structural differentiation under the dual effect of AI computing power demand and the supply-demand pattern of consumer electronics. The demand for AI servers remained strong, coupled with increased uncertainty in consumer demand, leading storage manufacturers to prioritize capacity towards high-profit products such as HBM and DDR5, resulting in further shrinkage in the supply scale of DRAM and NAND for consumer electronics. At the same time, the inventory levels of storage manufacturers and terminal manufacturers remained low, with strong demand for replenishing inventory, further magnifying the market's supply tightness gap. According to Qunzhi Consulting data, storage prices in the first quarter of 2026 rose more than expected, with the price of consumer electronics storage increasing by over 60% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the price of NAND increasing by over 70%. The specific analysis of the price trend for each product is as follows: DRAM: Consumer prices continue to rise, and the shortage situation in 2026 may continue In the first quarter of 2026, contract prices for consumer electronics DRAM, mainly LPDDR4X/LPDDR5X, saw a significant increase compared to the previous quarter, with contract prices for mobile applications rising by 60%-70%, far exceeding market expectations. On the demand side, the demand for high-bandwidth memory such as HBM and DDR5 driven by AI server demand remained strong. It is difficult for mid-to-high-end consumer electronics products to significantly reduce storage specifications, as this would significantly impact user experience. Therefore, the overall capacity demand is relatively rigid, making it difficult to alleviate cost pressures through specification reductions. On the supply side, storage manufacturers continued to optimize capacity allocation, with more capacity allocated to HBM due to the mass production of HBM4, further reducing the supply scale of consumer electronics DRAM. At the same time, the inventory levels of manufacturers were at historic lows, and capacity expansion had a periodical lag, making it difficult to fill the supply gap in the short term. Overall, the shortage of DRAM supply is unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, with the increase in the first quarter expanding, and prices are expected to continue to rise in the second quarter. NAND: Short-term price increases to continue, with a slowdown expected in the second half of the year Qunzhi Consulting predicts that in the second quarter of 2026, prices for consumer electronics NAND will continue to rise, with prices for mobile applications increasing by 40%-45% and consumer-grade SSD prices increasing by 35%-40%. Compared to the first quarter, the increase in NAND prices for mobile applications is expected to converge to 65%-70%. On the demand side, prices for UFS, eMMC, and consumer-grade SSDs have all significantly increased, with consumer-grade SSD prices particularly prominent. On the supply side, leading storage manufacturers are prioritizing advanced 3DNAND production capacity for high-profit products such as enterprise eSSDs, leading to a clear squeeze in the supply of NAND for consumer electronics. Additionally, the capacity utilization rates of major manufacturers are already at full capacity, making it difficult to quickly release additional capacity. Qunzhi Consulting believes that the structural bias in capacity driven by AI is difficult to reverse, and the release of new capacity has a periodical lag, making it challenging to substantially alleviate the supply-demand gap for NAND in consumer electronics terminals, leading to a continued uptrend in prices.