Hong Kong stocks concept tracking | Traffic in the Hormuz Strait is obstructed by the REFIRE pattern, oil transportation leading companies benefit from rising freight rates (with concept stocks)

Before the escalation of the situation, oil transportation was already in a high level of prosperity. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of crude oil transportation has been continuously increasing. Recently, due to the expected escalation of the situation in Iran, VLCC-TCE had already surged to a high level of over $200,000 per day before the conflict broke out. Even without considering the impact of the Iran situation, the oil transportation industry is currently in a relatively certain upward cycle. Dongxing pointed out that under the catalysis of external factors, the industry's freight rate center is expected to exceed expectations in 26 years. According to Kpler data, it is expected that about 10 oil tankers will dock at Yanbu Port, which worries about a potential oversupply and is expected to increase the number of VLCCs further. The distance from Yanbu Port/Hormuz Strait to QINGDAO PORT will increase by about 18%. Considering the shipping capacity of Yanbu Port and Fujairah Port, the demand gap seeking replenishment from the Persian Gulf will further expand the distance by more than 30%. In the short term, strategic reserves will be released and supply chain adjustments will be made to hedge against the geopolitical impacts of the US-Iran conflict, but the partial restoration of the capacity to pass through the Hormuz Strait remains a way to resolve the issue. After the ban is lifted, compensatory demand is expected to maintain high freight rates for oil tankers, and if vessel utilization is limited, freight rates are expected to rise further. The historical increase in VLCC fleet concentration is being reshaped in pricing mechanisms, with one aspect being the enhancement of shipowners' bargaining power through "quasi-alliancing", while alliances such as Sinokor, MSC, and Trafigura have surplus rents for fleets, making alliances more capable of expanding their capacity, and the concentration is expected to further increase. A CITIC SEC research report stated that the situation in the Gulf of Hormuz remains uncertain. Short-term uncertainties are expected to drive freight rates higher, and the expectation is that the leading oil transportation companies will achieve record profits by 2026. Hong Kong-listed oil transportation companies: COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138): The group has a total of 159 oil tanker units, with a total carrying capacity of 23.74 million tons; 12 oil tankers are under construction, with a total carrying capacity of 2.364 million tons; making it the largest oil tanker fleet in the world. The group has invested in the construction of 87 LNG vessels, of which 50 are in operation with a total capacity of 8.42 million cubic meters. The group also owns 8 chemical tankers with a total carrying capacity of approximately 73,000 tons. Oil transportation is the core business of the company, with revenue accounting for more than 80% over the past decade, with profits mainly contributed by foreign trade crude oil and refined oil transportation, and with domestic oil transportation and LNG transportation forming the profit foundation. As of September 2025, the unified tonnage of oil tankers, LNG vessels, chemical tankers, and LPG vessels accounted for 83.2%, 16.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively.