In January, retail sales in the United States experienced a negative growth, coupled with the unexpectedly low non-farm payrolls, highlighting the chilling economic conditions.

In January, retail sales in the United States recorded a month-on-month rate of -0.2%, marking a negative value for the first time since October 2025, with market expectations at -0.3%. Core retail sales in the United States in January remained at 0%, in line with expectations and previous values. Due to low consumer confidence and severe winter weather across the United States, retail spending in January declined. The retail industry plays a crucial role in the US economy, as consumer spending accounts for a large portion of economic activity. Continued weak or declining consumer spending poses a threat to the US economy, as consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of economic growth. Retail sales in the US declined in January, mainly due to sluggish business for car dealers. Seven out of 13 categories saw a decline, with a 0.9% drop in car sales and decreases in revenue for clothing stores, gas stations, and health and personal care stores. Overall retail spending in the US at the beginning of the year was relatively mild, accompanied by concerns about the job market and cost of living. While affluent households may still be able to purchase non-essential items, lower- and middle-income consumers may become more cautious. Another set of data released on Friday showed a "jaw-dropping" US non-farm employment market. The US unemployment rate in February hit 4.4%, a new high since December 2025, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.3%. Seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the US decreased by 92,000 people in February, recording a negative value for the first time since October 2025, with market expectations of an increase of 59,000 people. As a barometer of the economy, Walmart last month predicted that profit growth this year would be lower than expected due to the sluggish US job market. Home Depot and Lowe's also pointed out that consumer concerns about the economy persist, and they also indicated that they do not expect tax refunds to household renovation spending. The only service sector category in the retail report restaurants and bars saw a 0.2% decrease in sales in January. Several restaurants, including Sweetgreen and Moe's BBQ, reported that subzero temperatures and winter blizzards hindered sales. After the data was released, traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once in 2026. The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped more than 20 points in the short term to 99.14. Spot gold rose more than $40 in the short term to $5112 per ounce, while spot silver rose by $1.60 to $83.85 per ounce. According to the latest market pricing, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in June. Previous government data showed a decrease in employment in the US last month. Rising global oil prices due to the Iran conflict have raised concerns about further inflation, with current inflation rates already exceeding the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. Just minutes before the employment report was released, traders reduced the probability of a rate cut in June to only 35%, but after the data was released, the likelihood of a rate cut in June quickly rose to around 50%.