The number of employed unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4%! The unexpected decrease in non-farm payrolls in the US in February has raised expectations for interest rate cuts.

The data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the number of non-farm employment in the US decreased by 92,000 in February, reporting a negative value again after October 2025, far below the market's expectation of an increase of 59,000 people; the unemployment rate was 4.4%, reaching a new high since December 2025, slightly higher than the market's expectation of 4.3%. Furthermore, the data showed that the number of non-farm employment added in December last year was revised down from 48,000 to -17,000, and the number of non-farm employment added in January was revised down from 130,000 to 126,000. After the revision, the total number of non-farm employment added in December last year and January this year decreased by 69,000 compared to the original revision. Following the release of this latest employment data, traders are currently predicting that the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June has risen to about 50%, compared to only 35% before the release of the employment data. As of the time of publication, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen by more than 22 basis points in the short term, to 99.09. Spot gold rose by over 1%, to $151.31 per ounce; spot silver rose by over 1%, to $83.37 per ounce. Pre-market futures for the three major US stock indexes have extended losses. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the healthcare industry lost 19,000 jobs in February, mainly due to a nurse strike in California, leading to 31,000 people temporarily unable to work. However, given that the healthcare industry has been a major growth point for recruitment, this number is indeed very alarming. Meanwhile, the employment numbers in the information industry and federal government continue to decline. Analyst Mark Niquette stated that this report raises doubts about whether the labor market is really stabilizing. Previously, the labor market experienced its worst hiring performance in non-recession years in decades. Although there was a surge in job growth at the beginning of this year, and the number of initial jobless claims remained at a low level, companies may have started implementing a series of previously announced layoff plans. In addition, the recent trend of productivity improvement indicates that spending in the field of artificial intelligence has enabled some companies to maintain operations with a more streamlined workforce. These data may shift the focus of the Federal Reserve to the labor market when assessing the duration of maintaining stable interest rates. Prior to this, policymakers have been more focused on inflation - even before concerns about price pressures arose among investors due to the US-Iran war. Analyst Chris Anstey even bluntly said that this week's non-farm data is likely to pressure the Federal Reserve to consider resuming rate cuts. The current situation is completely inconsistent with what many officials previously described as "stabilizing". In addition, some analysts pointed out that this non-farm report is extremely unfavorable for the Trump administration at a political level. Trump now needs to face a deteriorating labor market, while also dealing with persistent inflation concerns - the combination of slowing economic growth and sticky inflation known as "stagflation" could trigger the most severe sell-off - all of this is happening against the backdrop of rising oil and gas prices due to the war with Iran. In the past, Trump has been dismissive of weak economic signals and has persisted in believing that the US economy remains strong during his administration. However, even one of his most cherished indicators - the stock market, has shown quite volatile performance this week.