Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell, with Brent oil rising above $88. Non-farm and retail sales data is about to be released.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market on March 6th (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indices all fell. As of the time of writing, Nasdaq futures fell by 0.35%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.46%, and Dow Jones futures fell by 0.57%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index fell by 0.42%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.42%, the France CAC40 index fell by 0.68%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.79%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 4.69% to $84.81 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 3.36% to $88.28 per barrel. Market News US February Nonfarm Payrolls Outlook: New additions expected to plummet to 50,000, hidden worries behind the "stable" labor market. Several institutions predict that it will be difficult for the February nonfarm payroll report to reproduce the "surprise" of adding 130,000 jobs in January. Economists expect the February nonfarm employment report to increase by 50,000, with an unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3%. Dan North, Senior Economist at Allianz Trade Americas, described the current US labor market as "slightly dull" in an interview. He stated that while the February nonfarm employment data can maintain positive growth, it is "not truly strong or exciting." Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and renowned creator of the "Sahm Rule", pointed out that there are signs that the labor market is showing some stability, but she also warned that the current extremely low recruitment rate is making the economy "fragile". Oil price surge hits inflation bottom line: Federal Reserve's "no rate cut this year" shifts from extreme assumption to market mainstream. Due to the ongoing escalation of Middle East conflicts pushing up oil prices and potentially further exacerbating inflation expectations, bond options traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will abandon its rate cut plans this year. According to the latest data compiled by the Atlanta Fed, as of this Wednesday, traders believed there was a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain its benchmark interest rate within the current range before December. This probability significantly increased from 17% on the last trading day before the outbreak of the Iran conflict last Friday, reflecting market expectations for a rapid adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy shift. Maintaining interest rates unchanged has become the most likely single outcome in various policy scenarios. According to Atlanta Fed data, in other scenarios, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 24%, and the probability of two rate cuts is 12%. Traders even believe that the probability of a rate hike is as high as 16%, significantly higher than 8% on the last trading day before the Iran conflict erupted. Market loses confidence that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: If the blockade continues for five weeks, oil prices may soar to $100. Despite recent public commitments by the US government to deploy naval forces for protection and attempts to provide insurance support for blocked oil tankers through policy means, the latest energy research report by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. points out that the oil market still lacks confidence in whether these intervention measures can effectively restore order in the waterway. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believe that the current critical issue is the sustainability of commercial shipping rather than simply military escort. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second quarter of 2026 to $76 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous forecast of $66, but still significantly lower than the current global benchmark Brent crude oil price of $85 per barrel, while the WTI crude oil forecast has also been raised to $71. Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., explained that the estimate is based on the assumption that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at extremely low levels for approximately five days, followed by a gradual recovery period of one month. She also emphasized that if the interruption in the strait lasts for five weeks, Brent crude oil prices could rise above $100 per barrel. "Silver Rhapsody" reignites? Supply deficits resonate with industrial narratives, silver retests $100 mark. Some commodity analysts believe that silver prices are poised to challenge the psychological barrier of $100 in 2026 or even have a probability of surpassing the historical peak of $120 per ounce, driven by strong industrial demand, structural supply shortages, and inflows of safe-haven funds. Some analysts who have been tracking precious metals for a long time suggest that tracking the trajectory of gold prices and the ratio between gold and silver can provide important clues as to whether silver is undervalued. Chris Mancini, Portfolio Manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund, stated, "The current central value of the gold-to-silver ratio is around 48, with a long-term average of about 65 and a low value of 30. If the ratio drops to a low of 30, then with gold at $5,100 per ounce, the price of silver will be $170 per ounce." Trillion-dollar market makes Wall Street jittery! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s legendary CEO warns: Private credit risks resemble those on the eve of 2008. Negative news from the US private credit market has been frequent recently. The former CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., who led the Wall Street giant through the darkest moments of the 2008 financial crisis, is now sounding the alarm on the lack of transparency and hidden leverage in private credit. This former CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that the hidden risks in the private credit market could plunge the US into another financial crisis, likening the current crisis in the $1.8 trillion private credit market to signs and echoes of the subprime crisis on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, emphasizing that hidden leverage and liquidity risks should not be ignored. Some Wall Street bankers are also becoming increasingly concerned that the size of the private credit market is comparable to the subprime market in 2008, posing similar rapid contagion risks. Stock News AI ASIC and SSD demand surge! Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US) enjoys "AI inference dividend," operating profit surges by 72%. Data shows that for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 ending on January 31, Marvell Technology, Inc. recorded a year-on-year revenue growth of over 20% to $22.2 billion, setting a historical record slightly above the market's expectation of $22.1 billion. The revenue from the data center business closely related to AI training/inference super systems grew by 21% year-on-year to $1.65 billion, accounting for approximately 74% of the total revenue. GAAP operating profit increased by 72% year-on-year to $404.4 million. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.80, slightly higher than the market expectation of $0.79. Additionally, the company projects revenue of $2.4 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, higher than the market's expectation of $2.27 billion. The company also anticipates "further acceleration" in revenue growth for fiscal year 2027. As of the time of writing, Marvell Technology, Inc. rose by over 12% pre-market on Friday. The power of the "paid membership" model shines! Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST.US) beats Q2 profit expectations, sales increase against the trend. The financial report shows that Costco's revenue in the second quarter increased by 9.2% year-on-year to $69.6 billion, exceeding expectations by $2.8 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $4.58, exceeding the average expectation by 3 cents. Total membership fee revenue reached $1.36 billion, surpassing market expectations. Same-store sales increased by 7.4%, higher than the market's general expectation of 6.7%. Average ticket price increased by 4.2% and foot traffic increased by 3.1%. This large retailer stated that same-store sales in the US increased by 5.9% (higher than the market's general expectation of 5.7%). With large package sizes and unique product selection, Costco has attracted cost-conscious consumers - especially those with higher disposable incomes, thereby gaining market share. The retailer has also expanded e-commerce and delivery services, and has added exclusive shopping hours for premium members. AI burns cash too quickly, dragging down cash flow. Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) reported planning to lay off thousands of employees to ease financial pressure. Oracle Corporation is planning to lay off thousands of employees as one of its measures to address cash flow constraints caused by large-scale AI data center expansions. According to sources, the layoffs will affect various departments within the company and could take effect as early as this month. Two sources mentioned that some positions are being cut because Oracle Corporation expects a decrease in related demand as AI technology becomes more prevalent. Wall Street predicts that the huge investments in Oracle Corporation's cloud business data centers will turn its cash flow negative in the coming years, and it won't start to generate returns until related expenses begin to pay off by 2030. Sources familiar with the plan stated that the scope of the layoffs in this plan will far exceed the company's usual incremental streamlining. There are also reports that Oracle Corporation announced internally this week that it will reassess the large number of positions in its cloud business, effectively slowing down or pausing the recruitment process. A new chapter for Siasun Robot & Automation! Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN.US) partners with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) to integrate AI and sensors, igniting the "physical AI" revolution. Texas Instruments Incorporated is combining its real-time control, sensing, and power product portfolio with NVIDIA Corporation's advanced Siasun Robot & Automation computing components, Ethernet-based sensing, and exclusive simulation technology to provide significant technical support to developers in constructing, deploying, and mass-producing humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation units and other "physical artificial intelligence" (physical AI) end devices. Texas Instruments Incorporated's collaboration with NVIDIA Corporation is expected to advance the intelligent systems of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation to a higher level, rather than simply "jointly building Siasun Robot & Automation" at surface level. Their latest collaboration is more like building a more comprehensive, secure, and easily scalable infrastructure for Siasun Robot & Automation intelligent systems at the foundational technology stack level, providing substantial support for the industry to commercialize humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation. Important Economic Data and Events Preview 9:30 pm Beijing time US February Nonfarm Payrolls Data 9:30 pm Beijing time US January Retail Sales MoM 11:15 pm Beijing time San Francisco Fed President Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Posen participate in a panel discussion on the "value of private sector data for US monetary policy decision-making" 2:30 am Beijing time the next day FOMC Voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester deliver a speech on the US dollar's reserve status