The bull market plot of Robinhood (HOOD.US) is not yet complete! The growth narrative of the American "internet celebrity broker" is recognized by Wall Street.

Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD.US), a popular American "internet famous" brokerage, has been included in several Wall Street institutions' list of stocks that are "unstoppable buys and should be held firmly for the long term" for the next three years. Despite a significant downward revision of the company's stock target price from $147 to $122 by senior analyst Craig Siegenthaler of Bank of America Corp, the analyst continues to maintain a "buy" rating on the stock. As of last Friday's close, Robinhood's stock price fell by 4.53% to $75.85. The latest target price from Bank of America Corp still indicates a bullish position even after the target price adjustment. It is worth noting that Bank of America Corp has been actively adjusting earnings per share (EPS) expectations for brokerage firms, asset management companies, and international securities exchanges, all of which have recently reported their latest performances and are within the coverage range of Bank of America Corp's analyst team. The rationale behind Bank of America's downgrade of Robinhood is mainly due to adjustments in overall brokerage and asset management company profit expectations. After reviewing profit forecasts for core brokerages, including Robinhood, Bank of America believes that the future EPS path should be slightly lower than previously anticipated, hence the moderate reduction in target price. However, they maintain confidence in long-term growth prospects rather than denying its strong growth potential. Bank of America's analyst team believes that the fundamental growth drivers for Robinhood remain intact (such as a large platform asset base, trading revenue driven by retail investors, and substantial growth in net interest income). However, given recent macroeconomic adjustments and earnings pacing, they need to reflect more cautious performance expectations in the valuation setting. In their recent earnings announcement on February 10th, Robinhood reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fiscal year 2025. The financial data showed a significant 27% increase in quarterly total net revenue to $1.28 billion; trading revenue for Robinhood increased by 15% year-on-year to $776 million, while net interest revenue increased by 39% to $411 million. Robinhood's financial report also showed a substantial 68% year-on-year increase in total platform assets to $324 billion, mainly driven by continued net deposits, acquisitions of assets, and significant growth in stock asset valuation. Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates a financial services platform primarily aimed at global retail investors. The platform allows users to invest in a variety of assets including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, cryptocurrencies, American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), stocks, and gold. They also operate and own an online cryptocurrency trading platform. Robinhood's stock price surged by 200% in 2025. Robinhood's main business is online brokerage and electronic trading services, providing trading platforms for retail investors to trade stocks, options, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), cryptocurrencies, index options, futures, and prediction markets, as well as diversifying into other product lines such as cryptocurrency wallets, wealth management, credit cards, and banking services. The company started with a "zero-commission trading" model and quickly gained user scale and market attention due to its young customer base and gamified trading experience. Robinhood Markets' core business revenue includes trading revenue, net interest revenue, cryptocurrency trading revenue, subscription services, and other sources. The significant rise in Robinhood's stock price in 2025 was mainly driven by multiple growth factors. Firstly, the company's financial performance in fiscal year 2025 significantly improved, with continued high revenue growth and profitability, including active trading, platform asset expansion, and increased user engagement, enabling it to shed its past loss-making label. Its revenue structure showed strong performance in core businesses such as stocks, options, and cryptocurrency trading, while new businesses like the recently launched prediction markets similar to polymarket also boosted market expectations. The sharp increase in Drive stock price in 2025 by over 200% was also fueled by retail investors' enthusiasm as the bull market in US stocks continued to heat up, along with the resurgence of the crypto market and the overall bull market environment in the US driving a comprehensive increase in trading volumes. However, since entering 2026, the company's stock price has shown a significant decline, dropping by over 30% year-to-date, reflecting a reassessment of its growth pace and the sustainability of its profitability. On one hand, the company's latest financial reports showed a significant decline in cryptocurrency revenue, which had been an important growth engine in 2025, leading to a downward adjustment in market expectations for future revenue growth. On the other hand, while the company's overall profitability remains solid, some analysts believe that its current valuation already overly reflects future growth expectations, with short-term resistance coming from macroeconomic volatility caused by tariffs and political unrest at GEO Group Inc, as well as fluctuating retail trading activity and uncertainty in cryptocurrency trading revenue. Overall, the surge in 2025 and the decline in 2026 reflect the dynamic game between investors' assessment of Robinhood's fundamentals and market sentiment. The overall consensus rating from Wall Street leans towards bullishness. In a broader view of Wall Street consensus expectations compiled by TIPRANKS, out of 21 Wall Street analysts covering the company (Robinhood), 19 analysts give a "buy" recommendation, while only 2 recommend "sell" and 3 maintain a neutral stance. The target price range given by analysts is between $120 to $140. The 12-month average target price is approximately $130.10, with the highest target price reaching an astonishing $180 and the lowest around $100 - indicating that even the lowest target price is higher than the current trading price. The latest Wall Street consensus rating highlights that although some institutions have recently lowered their 12-month target stock price for Robinhood, the majority of institutions remain positive about Robinhood's strong long-term fundamental expansion. They believe that its revenue and operating profit growth momentum remains strong (such as the Wall Street consensus forecast of an 85.3% EPS increase after adjustment in fiscal year 2025) and that the continuous expansion of business lines (such as prediction markets and other new functions) can mitigate the fluctuations in cryptocurrency trading revenue. For instance, Wolfe Research recently upgraded Robinhood's rating to "outperform the market," believing that the revenue growth trajectory of prediction markets can partially offset weak trends in other businesses, and that prediction markets as a new revenue source are sustainable. Bank of America analyst Craig Siegenthaler also emphasizes his continued bullish view on the company's long-term growth path, believing that the growth in platform assets and business expansion provide support, and he is optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company's trading and net interest revenue. Another major Wall Street firm, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., recently lowered its target price (from $130 to $111) while still maintaining a "buy" rating, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth logic but suggesting that fair valuation needs to reflect more cautious earnings forecasts. Prediction Markets became popular worldwide since the end of the 2024 US presidential election, when almost everyone was enthusiastic about betting on who would win the presidential election between Trump and Harris on the paid prediction market platform Polymarket, signaling the arrival of an era where "everything can be bet on." What is the definition of a "Prediction Market" company? Essentially, they are trading platforms that turn real-world events into tradable binary contracts: contracts are usually settled as "yes/no" (such as whether an event will occur), and prices can be interpreted as the market pricing probabilities. In the US context, these types of contracts are often structured as regulated derivatives "event contracts." Undoubtedly, the important channels like Robinhood with a large investor base introduced related contract trading, as well as ICE, CME, and other traditional giants entering the market through investments or new platforms, significantly boosting the credibility and user reach of the entire prediction industry. Prediction markets enter sports in the form of "event contracts," attracting trading volume in states where there is no legal sports betting, thereby becoming an important source of incremental revenue for platforms like Kalshi, while also sparking state-level compliance controversies and attention. More significantly, some Wall Street investment firms and professional trading funds have started using it to bet/hedge on macroeconomic and corporate event probabilities (such as Federal Reserve monetary policy, success or failure of large mergers), as the binary contract structure of prediction markets is more "pure." In a research report from the well-known Wall Street Financial Institutions, Inc. Citizens Financial Group Inc., the analyst team stated that by 2030, companies similar to Polymarket, such as Prediction Markets companies, could potentially generate revenues five times the current market size, surpassing the $10 billion revenue threshold and achieving a super-scale.