Hong Kong stock concept tracking | The US-Iran war triggers violent fluctuations in gold prices, and most investment banks are bullish on the future market (with concept stocks attached)

On February 28th local time, the US attacked Iran, triggering a global risk aversion. Market analysis believes that the prices of precious metals such as gold will see a significant increase. However, it is worth noting that after experiencing a rise on February 28th, gold prices plunged on March 1st. Pan Helin, an economist and member of the Expert Committee on Information and Communication Economy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has changed short-term market expectations, believing that the situation in Iran may stabilize rapidly. If it can be further verified that Iran can smoothly transition power after Khamenei's death, then the capital market may not rule out the expectation of a complete reversal, namely a decrease in the price of gold and oil, with US stocks, especially industrial stocks, rising. However, war is uncertain, and the death of Khamenei may further plunge Iran into chaos. In response, renowned macro strategist Michael Ball, combined with historical precedents, conducted a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the Iran situation. Ball pointed out that if the US takes military action against Iran, it may cause sudden risk aversion in the market, but this sentiment may still turn into a trading opportunity. Only when there is substantial disruption to oil production and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, will this negative market sentiment persist in the long term. Ball stated that the key issues now are twofold: (1) What are the US's objectives in taking action against Iran, whether it is to accelerate the negotiation process or overthrow the Iranian leadership; (2) Will any military strikes be described as a one-time action, or the beginning of a series of battles. Ball first focuses on a scenario where the US carries out limited strikes against Iran and takes a conciliatory stance afterwards, meaning that there will be no sustained disruption to regional oil production and the transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Historical precedents, such as the US military airstrikes that killed Iranian military figure Soleimani in January 2020, the large-scale airstrikes against Iran in last year's Israeli "Rising Lion" operation, and the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in the US "Midnight Hammer" operation, all show a typical market reaction pattern: strong risk aversion in the first 1-3 days - oil prices, gold prices, and panic indexes rise, and stock markets come under pressure. However, if shipping in the region remains smooth, volatility will quickly narrow, with oil prices eliminating event risk premiums as stock markets recover ground afterwards. As for the "Rising Lion" and "Midnight Hammer" operations, typical market reactions tend to occur about a week before the first strike, as the market anticipates the action in advance. After the first strike actually occurs, the market often experiences a reversal in one day: gold and oil prices show a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" style decline, while US stocks rebound after the attack. Most investment banks are bullish on the post-war outlook. EB Securities stated that given the continued uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the Middle East geopolitical situation, they maintain their view of good prospects for gold prices for the year, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of the year and political uncertainties between the US and other countries supporting a rise in gold prices. Bank of America Research said that from a macro perspective, the financial attributes of gold continue to stand out. The long-term fiscal deficits of the US, global geopolitical and trade uncertainties, make the safe-haven value of gold increasingly important; and the buying spree of central banks from various countries continues, with emerging market central banks increasing their holdings of gold to hedge against currency fluctuations and optimize their foreign reserves structure, becoming the "ballast" of gold demand. Huayuan Securities believes that in the medium term, the dual themes of "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" will continue to provide strong momentum for gold price increases, with the US-Iran war and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz strengthening gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes, and recommends focusing on phase-by-phase allocation opportunities. Related stock concepts: Zijin Mining Group (02899): From 2020 to 2024, the CAGR of gold production is 12%, ranking among the top in global major gold mining companies; plans to continue the copper/gold production CAGR at 8-10% from 2024 to 2028, with a good ability to realize, with an average completion rate of 104/96% for copper/gold production planning from 2014 to 2023. The company also has a strong ability for cost-effective mergers and acquisitions and internal resource fission. The copper/gold resource volume has increased by 6/3 times from 2014 to 2023. Shandong Gold Mining (01787): Considering the company's inventory situation and multiple new construction and expansion projects in progress, as well as the rich gold resources of its parent company, Shandong Gold Mining Group, there are also expectations for asset injections in the future, while the current gold price still has room for an upward trend. The company is forecasted to have a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.03, 5.83, and 5.93 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively. Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693): Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining owns and operates 6 gold mines with a total resource of 390 tons. Through technological improvements and acquisitions, the gold production has steadily increased to 15-16 tons. About 70-80% of the production comes from overseas mines, which is relatively small compared to Zijin. However, the company is simultaneously promoting multiple technological improvement projects, with the planning to increase gold annual production to 7 tons at the Saipan gold-copper mine in 2027, and to achieve annual gold production of 6.2-7.8 tons at the Vasa gold mine by the end of 2028, with a long-term increase to 7.8-10.9 tons. Lingbao Gold (03330): Lingbao Gold announced that the group is expected to achieve revenue between approximately 12.935 billion yuan and approximately 13.172 billion yuan for the year ending December 31, 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 9% to 11%; and a net profit between approximately 1.503 billion yuan and approximately 157.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 115% to 125%. According to current information, the increase in revenue and net profit is mainly due to the group's continuous optimization of production organization, strengthening of production scheduling, maintaining a stable production rhythm, leading to a year-on-year increase in gold production, while continuing to push for cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, strict implementation of measures, and the favorable factors of the rising gold market prices, the overall performance of the group has significantly improved.