Customs duty ruling sparks legal battle? Companies may unleash a surge of refund litigation totaling up to $170 billion.

After the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that Trump's tariff measures were illegal, thousands of companies and importers are preparing to launch a potentially years-long legal battle, trying to recover the tariffs they have already paid, with the highest amount reaching up to $170 billion. This ruling not only challenges the legal basis of Trump's trade policies but may also trigger chain reactions in the global economy and corporate finance. The Supreme Court of the United States ruled on Friday that President Trump does not have the authority to impose tariffs on dozens of trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). However, the court did not address the issue of whether the tariffs already collected need to be refunded, leaving the related procedures to be resolved by lower courts. Trump later criticized the court at a news conference, saying that although it took months to form a ruling, it did not provide any explanation regarding the refund issue, and said, "We'll probably be 'sitting' in court for the next five years." Despite Trump's statement that he plans to immediately launch new 10% global tariffs based on other legal provisions, this has not stopped companies from filing lawsuits and seeking refunds. Analysts believe that if the actual refund process is initiated, its scale and complexity will be unprecedented, posing a significant challenge to the U.S. fiscal and trade system. According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Trump administration has levied approximately $170 billion in tariffs under the IEEPA framework. The Supreme Court denied the legality of this legal tool, but did not explicitly state whether importers have the right to obtain refunds, leading the controversy back to the U.S. International Trade Court for the next round of legal battles. Prior to the Supreme Court ruling, more than 1,500 companies had filed lawsuits with the trade court in order to qualify for refunds. The lawsuits involve not only large retailers and industrial companies, but also a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises and subsidiaries of multinational companies in the U.S. For example, companies such as Costco and Alcoa Corporation have publicly joined the litigation. Retail and apparel companies are particularly anxious, as tariffs have significantly raised the costs of sourcing goods from countries such as China and Vietnam. In December last year, Lululemon Athletica stated that tariffs would significantly impact its profit margins. By a vote of 6 to 3, the Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration's position, with Justice Kavanaugh pointing out in the dissenting opinion that the court did not clarify whether or how the government would refund the "billions of dollars" in tariff revenue, warning that this process could be "extremely chaotic." Market and industry institutions generally believe that even if refunds are ultimately allowed, the execution process will be long and complex. While the U.S. International Trade Court has processed large-scale tax refund cases in 1998 involving approximately 40,000 cases and $75 million, the volume of disputed tariffs far exceeds this level. By the end of 2025, more than 300,000 importers had paid the relevant tariffs. Industry groups have called for simplification of the refund process. The National Retail Federation stated that if tariffs are refunded, it will provide businesses with financial space for reinvestment and business expansion. However, government officials have warned that refunds may turn into "corporate welfare," especially for companies that have passed on the cost of tariffs to consumers. From a market perspective, analysts believe that the ruling may provide some support to corporate profits in the short term, but is unlikely to significantly lower commodity prices. Some corporate executives have stated that rather than going through a complex and lengthy refund process, it would have been better if the tariffs had never been imposed in the first place. As one manufacturing company executive put it, "Getting a refund may bring temporary joy, but most people would prefer that none of this had ever happened."