US commercial activity growth slowed down in February, and economic growth in the first quarter may significantly cool down.

The latest survey shows that the business activity in the United States continued to expand in February, but the growth rate has dropped to its lowest level in nearly 10 months. The decline in manufacturing orders, slowing growth in new business in the service sector, and almost stagnant job growth indicate that the momentum of the US economy is clearly slowing down. Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that the US Composite Output PMI, which measures the overall performance of the manufacturing and service sectors, dropped to 52.3 in February, lower than January's 53.0, hitting its lowest level since April of last year. While a reading above 50 still indicates expansion in the private sector, the latest figure suggests a significant slowdown in the pace of expansion. Both the service and manufacturing PMIs saw declines this month. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the PMI data so far this year suggests that the annualized GDP growth rate in the US may be only around 1.5%, showing a significant cooling down in the economy in the first quarter compared to the strong growth performance in the second half of last year. Earlier in the day, data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter exceeded market expectations, due to disruptions caused by last year's government shutdown and slowing consumer spending. This official data, along with the PMI survey results, further solidify the market's view of an economic slowdown. In terms of sub-indices, the service sector PMI dropped to 52.3 in February, lower than January's 52.7 and below the economists' expectation of 53.0 from a Reuters survey; while the manufacturing PMI dropped from last month's 52.4 to 51.2, marking a seven-month low and also below the market expectation of 52.6. Manufacturing new orders saw a second consecutive decline in the past three months, reflecting sustained pressure on the demand side. In terms of employment, the employment index for both manufacturing and services fell to near the breakeven line at 50.2, indicating a near-stagnation in business recruitment activities. Analysts point out that against the backdrop of declining orders and slowing business expansions, companies are becoming more cautious about hiring. Overall, the February PMI data further indicate a significant cooling down in the US economy in the early stages of the year. With business activities slowing down and demand weakening, market expectations for the first quarter economic growth in the US are gradually becoming more conservative.