Market races to benefit from the "rate cut trend": Before the release of retail sales data, US bond yields continue to decline.

US Treasury bonds are expected to rise for the second consecutive day, as upcoming US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials may further strengthen the case for further interest rate cuts. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell 2 basis points to 4.18%, near its lowest level since mid-January; while the more policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury bond yield dropped 1 basis point, showing a so-called "bull-flattening" trend, where long-term yields decline faster than short-term yields. The money market currently expects a 25% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year (by 25 basis points each time), compared to the market's expectation of two rate cuts just a week ago. Economists predict that US retail sales growth in December is expected to slow from 0.6% to 0.4%, while the employment cost index for the fourth quarter of last year is expected to remain stable at 0.8%. Both reports are released before the highly anticipated January nonfarm payrolls data, which was delayed from last week to Wednesday due to the government shutdown. On Monday, Kevin Hassett, director of the US National Economic Council, said that the employment data in the US may decline in the coming months. Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, strategist at Mizuho International Limited, stated, "The somewhat flattening trend in the US Treasury bond market may remain near current levels until the release of the nonfarm payrolls report this week." Federal Reserve Presidents Loretta Mester of Cleveland and Robert Kaplan of Dallas are considered to be monetary hawks and will also participate in interest rate policy voting this year, with speeches scheduled for later on Tuesday. The US Treasury Department will issue $58 billion in new three-year bonds in the first phase of this week, with new 10-year and 30-year bonds also being issued in this phase. These developments and speeches may impact market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate policy steps. Swap trading indicates that policymakers will keep rates unchanged at the next meeting, maintaining rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%.