TrendForce: It is expected that by 2026, the global shipment share of optical transceivers with a speed of 800G or higher will exceed 60%.

According to TrendForce's latest research on the high-speed interconnect market, in order to cope with the massive computing requirements for AI, Google's new generation Ironwood cabinet system combines 3D Torus network topology, Apollo OCS all-optical network, to achieve a high-speed interconnect architecture, which will increase the global shipment share of 800G and above high-speed optical transceivers from 19.5% in 2024 to over 60% in 2026, gradually becoming the standard configuration for AI data centers. With the architecture of the full optical network switch OCS (optical circuit switch) in the Ironwood cabinet, TPUs handle short-distance interconnects with high-speed copper cables, while inter-cabinet data transmission is fully handled by the all-optical network. AI clusters are required to be equipped with a sufficient number of 800G/1.6T optical modules from the design stage. TrendForce estimates that by 2026, Google's TPU shipments will reach nearly 4 million units, corresponding to a demand for over 6 million units of 800G and above optical modules. In addition to the leading architecture of AI clusters, "energy saving" and "cost saving" are the biggest advantages of Google's design. TrendForce stated that the core of Apollo OCS technology lies in the use of "Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS)", allowing direct coupling of data optical fibers to avoid the energy consumption and latency caused by repeated conversion between "light" and "electricity" in traditional technologies. Compared to traditional switches, a single OCS switch reduces power consumption by approximately 95%. Additionally, in the future, if the bandwidth needs to be upgraded from 800G to 1.6T, enterprises only need to replace the high-speed optical modules without having to rebuild the entire system, making the upgrade cost more competitive. From a supply chain perspective, it is expected that leading manufacturers such as InnoLight (Zhongji Innolight) and the second-tier Eoptolink will account for nearly 80% of Google's orders for 800G and above optical modules based on their cooperation with Google in silicon photonics and the 1.6T platform. Lumentum plays a key role in OCS systems and MEMS supply, and its capacity planning will actually impact the pace of the introduction of Apollo OCS. TrendForce pointed out that as computing power continues to stack up, the demand for data transmission between cabinets, clusters, and clusters will also increase simultaneously. Therefore, the technological advancement and supply of high-speed optical modules, lasers, and other optical communication components will become another decisive factor affecting the speed and cost of expanding computing power, in addition to GPUs and memory.