Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are all rising, and software stocks are rebounding.

1. Before the US stock market opens on Friday, the futures of the three major US stock indexes have all turned higher. As of the time of writing, the Nasdaq futures are up 0.51%, the S&P 500 index futures are up 0.52%, and the Dow Jones futures are up 0.60%. Earlier, Nasdaq futures had dropped over 1.6%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index is up 0.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.54%, the France CAC 40 index is up 0.23%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index is up 0.34%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 1.39%, at $71.99 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.34%, at $75.66 per barrel. Market News Tonight, the focus is on the non-farm payroll report, followed by a "double bomb" next week. Due to the impact of the US government shutdown, the January non-farm payroll report has been delayed to be released on Wednesday, February 11 at 9:30 p.m., and the January CPI report has been delayed to be released on Friday, February 13 at 9:30 p.m. The release of these two major economic reports may trigger a new round of market volatility. The winning strategy of US stocks suddenly failed! Momentum trading faces historic retracement: Funds are leaving tech stocks and favoring value stocks. For years, chasing momentum in the stock market has been a winning strategy, but this strategy suddenly failed in the past week. The collapse of this momentum strategy is part of the overall sell-off triggered by the weak performance of the US stock market this year, with the direct trigger being the sharp volatility in the software sector - market concerns that the application of artificial intelligence (AI) could have a disruptive effect on some companies, leading to a decline of over 20% in this sector. However, some sectors have shown strength in the current sell-off, bringing comfort to investors who have not given up on the bull market. Investors point out that the prices of clothing retailers, tourism companies, and home goods manufacturers have continued to rise, and value stocks that previously performed poorly have seen significant influx of funds. Bitcoin rebounds after a steep drop. The world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, experienced a "Black Thursday" as it accelerated its decline to near $63,000 in the last minutes of US stock trading on Thursday, with an intraday drop of 12%, hitting a new low since October 2023. In early Friday trading in Asia, Bitcoin dropped by 4.8% to reach a low of $60,033. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has rebounded above $66,000. Evgeny Gokhberg, founder of Re7 Capital, stated that the decline of this token from its all-time high seems to be "more due to position liquidation than to obvious fundamental factors." "Market flows indicate that hedge funds may be deleveraging, including pressure from basis trading, which means that this decline may be due to structural factors rather than fundamental factors." Traders are currently focused on whether Bitcoin can hold above $60,000, as failure to do so could lead to a downward trend towards the range of around $55,000. Iran and the US hold indirect talks to ease Middle East tensions. Tehran has stated that the talks will be the first stage of a longer-term diplomatic process. According to the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the focus of the discussions is to create suitable conditions for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations. Iran's main priorities include assessing the sincerity and willingness of the opposing party, and it is expected that after this round of negotiations, the roadmap for the talks will become clearer. "The doomsday theory of software stocks" ignites a major transformation! After panic selling, the market embraces the "software cornerstone" of the AI era. The pessimistic narrative of the "doomsday theory of software stocks," which has swept global stock markets, is still brewing like a snowball effect. A series of AI tools/agent-based AI intelligent agent collaboration platforms launched by Anthropic have triggered a widespread wave of selling in the SaaS subscription software sector and the broader software sector of the stock market. Some institutional funds are starting to take advantage of the recent plunge in software stocks, even nearly halved in price, and they agree with Huang Renxun's positive view on software stocks - that the market has mistakenly killed the software giants that focus on "AI + core operations" and have strong fundamentals. As of the time of writing, software stocks that have experienced a recent sharp decline are rebounding. Orders scheduled until 2027! Chairman of Wistron, a supplier of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), asserts: AI is not a bubble but the beginning of a new era. Lin Xianming, chairman of Wistron, a Taiwanese electronic manufacturing company, stated on Friday that artificial intelligence (AI) is not a bubble, and the growth rate of the company's AI-related orders is expected to exceed last year's by 2026. The company is also a supplier of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US). Lin Xianming told reporters in Taipei: "We believe that AI can indeed empower all industries, so it is not a bubble but the beginning of a new era, a brand-new AI era is coming." He also added that Wistron's order situation is good, scheduled until 2027, and the orders for this year are expected to see a "significant" growth compared to last year. Wistron CEO Lin Jianxun revealed that the US manufacturing base will officially start production in the first half of 2026. Weak job market boost expectations for rate cuts, US bond yield curve approaches steepest level in four years. Due to the combined effects of warming rate cut expectations, sustained inflation, and concerns about the fiscal deficit, the US bond yield curve is approaching its steepest level in over four years. On Thursday, the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasuries and the 2-year US Treasuries widened to 73.7 basis points, the highest level since January 2022. With signs of weakness in the US job market, traders have increased their bets on a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year, leading to a further steepening of the US bond yield curve on Thursday. According to seasonal adjustments, the number of initial jobless claims in the US surged by 22,000 to 231,000 in the week ending January 31. In addition, the number of job vacancies in the US dropped to 6.542 million in December, the lowest since September 2020 and significantly lower than the market's expected 7.25 million. Individual Stock News "Cost-cutting measures" plus betting on new drugs such as Alzheimer's disease drug, Biogen (BIIB.US) profit outlook stronger than expected. Biogen's total revenue in the fourth quarter was approximately $23 billion, a slight decrease of 7% year-on-year, and the adjusted earnings per share were $1.99, both well above the average analyst expectations. Sales data for the drugs Skyclarys for rare disease treatment and Spinraza for spinal muscular atrophy were below analyst expectations, with Spinraza being affected by shipment schedules outside the US. The company's profit outlook for 2026 given by the management is higher than the average analyst expectations, indicating that cost-cutting measures are buffering the impact of declining sales in its multiple sclerosis (MS) business. AI giant who "Spends the most money"! Concerns arise over Amazon.com, Inc.'s (AMZN.US) profitability: planned spending this year of $200 billion far exceeds expectations, AWS profitability disappointing. Amazon.com, Inc. reported a 14% year-on-year increase in revenue to $213.4 billion in Q4, higher than the market's general expectation of $211.5 billion; GAAP earnings per share were $1.95, lower than expected by $0.02. The company also announced plans to spend $200 billion this year on data centers and other equipment. The company's operating profit was $25 billion, higher than the market's general expectation of $24.8 billion and also higher than the company's previous guidance of $21 to $26 billion. However, free cash flow over the past twelve months decreased to $11.2 billion, mainly due to a 507 billion increase in property and equipment expenditures (excluding sales proceeds and incentive measures). This increase mainly reflects investments in artificial intelligence. Roblox (RBLX.US) exceeds expectations in Q4 performance and user growth, highlighting the long-term strategic layout of the trend towards younger users. Roblox reported Q4 revenue of $1.415 billion, a 43% year-on-year increase. Net loss was $316 million, an increase of nearly 44% from the net loss of $220 million in the same period last year; loss per share was 45 cents, better than the market's expected loss per share of 48 cents. Bookings increased by 63% year-on-year to $2.22 billion, surpassing the market's expected $2.05 billion. Average daily active users (DAUs) reached 144 million, a 69% year-on-year increase, exceeding the market's expectation of 138 million. Roblox expects bookings in the first quarter of 2026 to be between $1.69 billion and $1.74 billion, higher than the market's expected $1.68 billion. Additionally, the company announced that due to the "inherent volatility" of its business, it will no longer provide annual performance guidance starting from 2027. Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR (TM.US) raises full-year profit guidance, CFO Ju Kenzai taking over as CEO So In. Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR reported net sales of 13.46 trillion in the third quarter, an 8.6% year-on-year increase; net profit of 1.26 trillion, a 43% year-on-year decrease. Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR forecasts full-year net sales of 50.00 trillion, up from the previous forecast of 49.00 trillion; forecast net profit of 3.57 trillion, up from the previous forecast of 2.93 trillion. The company has raised its full-year operating profit forecast by 11.8%, citing a weak yen and cost-cutting measures helping offset the impact of US tariffs. The financial report shows that electrified vehicles accounted for nearly half of its retail vehicle sales in the first three quarters of this fiscal year. Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR also announced that President Akio Toyoda will step down and be replaced by CFO Ken Kenzai. This marks the second CEO change in three years for the automaker. Industry wake-up call: Stellantis (STLA.US) can't hold on, 22 billion write-down declares an "emergency brake" for electrification. Stellantis NV will undergo a comprehensive restructuring of its business and has set aside approximately 22 billion in costs. The write-down includes around 6.5 billion in cash outflows, and Ford Motor Company (F.US), General Motors Company (GM.US), and other automakers have taken similar measures before. The company stated on Friday that this decision is part of its new strategy to be released in May. The costs will be recognized in the latter half of 2025 as an off-balance sheet item. CPU shortages escalate! Intel Corporation (INTC.US), AMD (AMD.US) urgently notify Chinese customers of supply shortages, with delivery lead times of up to 6 months. Intel Corporation and AMD have informed Chinese customers of shortages in supplies of server central processing units (CPUs), with Intel Corporation warning that the delivery lead time of related products could be up to 6 months. One of the sources said that due to the supply shortage, the overall price of Intel Corporation's server products in the Chinese market has increased by over 10%, with specific increases varying depending on customer cooperation contracts. The investment frenzy in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure not only has triggered a rush to buy dedicated AI chips but also has continued to exacerbate supply and demand conflicts in other parts of the supply chain, with shortages in the storage chip sector being particularly acute, and prices of related products still on the rise. Two companies have just notified Chinese customers of the supply shortage in recent weeks. Important economic data and events forecast 22:00 Beijing time: US December durable goods orders revised month-over-month (%), US December factory orders month-over-month (%). 23:00 Beijing time: US February University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. 02:00 the next day Beijing time: US total rig count as of February 6. 01:00 the next day Beijing time: US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on economic prospects and demand-side inflation dynamics. 04:30 the next day Beijing time: CFTC releases weekly position report.