Lyon: MGM CHINA (02282) Fourth Quarter Property EBITDA Beats Expectations, Maintains "Outperform the Market" Rating.

Lyon released a research report claiming that MGM CHINA (02282) is expected to see a 29% year-on-year increase in property EBITDA to HK$2.753 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, exceeding the bank and market expectations by 9%. This is mainly driven by the above-average win rate of VIP rooms at MGM Cotai. Its total gaming revenue market share also expanded by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 16.3%. Even excluding the HK$233 million impact brought by the above-average VIP win rate, the book property EBITDA profit margin still increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 26.8%. This profit margin continues to be close to the company's target high range of 20%, showing effective control of operating expenses and rebates. MGM CHINA is currently trading at a forecasted enterprise value multiple of 7.2 times and maintains an "outperform the market" rating with a target price of HK$20.9. The report states that MGM CHINA's net revenue for the last quarter increased by 21% year-on-year to HK$9.617 billion, exceeding the bank's forecast by 2%. Based on additional operating data released by MGM Resorts, the bank estimates that MGM CHINA's total gaming revenue market share in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 16.3%, representing a 0.6 percentage point increase year-on-year. In addition, the bank estimates that MGM Cotai's above-average VIP win rate contributed HK$233 million to property EBITDA, meaning that excluding this impact, normalized EBITDA is HK$2.52 billion, which meets expectations after this adjustment.