Zhongjin: it is expected that the tightening of the copper supply and demand situation will continue to strengthen. Short-term adjustments are welcomed as a good opportunity for layout. It is recommended to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group (02899) and others.

Zhongjin released a research report stating that Duan Shaofu, Deputy Secretary-General of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, proposed to improve the construction of the copper resource reserve system at the press conference on the economic operation of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2025 on Tuesday (3rd). The United States also announced on Monday the launch of a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan ("Project Vault"), including more than 50 critical minerals such as rare earths, lithium, and copper identified by the US Geological Survey, to hedge supply chain risks. Zhongjin also pointed out that according to Mysteel data, domestic copper prices briefly fell on Monday, downstream restocking demand increased significantly month-on-month, and the trading volume of electrolytic copper and copper rods reached 38,000 and 43,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108% and 198% month-on-month, reaching new highs in nearly three months and March 2025. Zhongjin believes that both China and the US have launched copper resource reserve plans, and strategic stocking demand continues to grow. Industrial restocking supports copper prices, and the spring peak season restocking combined with tight supply may further push up copper prices. In the long term, the bull market in the copper industry is booming, and the current short-term correction presents a good opportunity to position. Zhongjin maintains its profit forecast, target price, and rating for relevant companies unchanged. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with high self-sufficiency rates in copper mining, strong potential for increased reserves and production, and external expansion and mergers, including Zijin Mining Group (02899), CMOC Group Limited (03993), Western Mining (601168.SH), Jchx Mining Management (603979.SH), Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630.SZ), etc.