JPMorgan Chase warns: Global copper inventories have doubled, short-term copper prices may face consolidation.

According to the Chase Wind Trading Platform, J.P. Morgan's Asia-Pacific stock research team released the "Copper Dashboard" (Lyndon Fagan, etc.) on February 3, 2026, pointing out that global visible copper inventories have more than doubled within a year, soaring from about 470,000 tons in the same period last year to about 1 million tons, reaching a new high in five years. Despite supply disruptions in global mines, inventories continued to rise in the fourth quarter, indicating a shift in supply and demand dynamics. Inventories doubled in a year, and mine problems cannot stop stockpiling The report stated that as of February 2026, global total inventories were approximately 1 million tons, an increase of 113% from the 470,000 tons in the same period in 2025, reaching a five-year high. It is worth noting that this inventory growth occurred against the backdrop of supply disruptions in global mines, highlighting the weak demand side. Market signals: High-frequency indicators are mixed Multiple high-frequency indicators monitored by J.P. Morgan present a complex situation. On the one hand, copper smelting fees (TC/RC) continue to be negative, indicating that raw material supply remains tight and smelters have weaker bargaining power in procurement. On the other hand, net speculative positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have started to decrease, and canceled warrant numbers are also decreasing. These signals show that investor sentiment is becoming cautious, and confidence in short-term price trends is wavering. As of early February 2026, copper prices remained around $5.30 per pound, but both technical and sentiment aspects show short-term pressure. Future outlook: Consolidation is the main trend, waiting for clear demand Considering various indicators, J.P. Morgan maintains a cautious stance on the copper market, expecting copper prices to consolidate near $12,000 per ton (about $5.45 per pound), with short-term risks leaning towards the downside. Major reasons include: the Chinese market entering the Spring Festival holiday, traditional off-peak season demand weakening; high global inventories providing natural pressure on prices; low downstream manufacturing operating rates and insufficient end consumer momentum. However, J.P. Morgan also pointed out that only in the later part of the second quarter of 2026, when demand signals become clearer after the Chinese holiday, the market may usher in new fluctuations and upside opportunities. At that time, if economic stimulus policies are enforced, infrastructure investments accelerate, or manufacturing orders rebound, copper prices are expected to resume their upward trend. This article is reproduced from Wall Street View, GMTEight editor: David.