The wildest fluctuations since 2008! Gold price fluctuations surpass Bitcoin's, but Wall Street remains steadfast in its "belief in a $6,000 gold price".

The latest statistical data shows that there has been a milestone surpassing dynamic in the volatility of the financial markets the volatility of traditional safe-haven asset gold, known as the "king of safe-haven assets" for a long time, has exceeded the volatility of the world's largest market capitalization cryptocurrency Bitcoin, known for its "violent fluctuations", highlighting that after experiencing an incredibly vigorous uptrend, the price fluctuations of gold have become more intense, reaching levels of volatility not seen in the past twenty years. At the same time, Wall Street financial giants remain bullish on the long-term investment prospects of gold amidst gold entering a trajectory of steep decline and violent fluctuations, against the backdrop of a weakening trend in the US dollar, disorderly expansion of debt in developed markets, and the continued geopolitical turmoil. Even though the price of gold experienced its most severe decline in forty years last Friday due to the "hawkish impact" triggered by the nomination of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in Washington, and continued to plunge significantly on Monday - with spot gold prices falling by close to 10% at one point on Monday, JPMorgan and Bank of America remain confident that gold is poised to rise to $6,000 by the end of 2026. According to the latest data compiled by institutions, the "30-day term volatility index" of gold prices has risen significantly to over 44%, reaching the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis, surpassing Bitcoin's volatility index of approximately 39%. Bitcoin is usually referred to as "digital gold" and has long been known for its extremely volatile nature, consistently ranking as one of the assets with the highest volatility in the world. From a bullish perspective, the surge in commodity volatility is more common in historical bull markets, which also means that the current higher volatility of gold compared to Bitcoin reflects a deeper market dynamic: in a period of transition where macro risk preferences are dominated by risk aversion, traditional safe assets (gold) may reflect changes in macro risk expectations earlier and more intensely than similar risk assets (Bitcoin). Gold's volatility surpassing Bitcoin last occurred in May 2025. This unusual and extreme phenomenon marks a significant reversal, as gold is usually seen as a much more stable store of value compared to cryptocurrencies, which are easily influenced by speculative forces. Since the emergence of Bitcoin seventeen years ago, gold's volatility index has only surpassed Bitcoin's in two instances, not including the current surpassing. The most recent occurrence was in May last year when ongoing tension in trade conflicts caused by global tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump led to massive sell-offs in all tradable assets in financial markets. The surge in volatility comes after gold prices experienced the largest decline in decades, signaling a dramatic reversal. Some commodity traders still believe that the upward trend in gold since the beginning of the year has been too rapid. On Monday, gold prices plummeted by as much as 10%, falling to around $4,400 per ounce during the Asian trading session, after reaching a historical high of nearly $5,600 before the epic sell-off last Friday. Economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and persistent sovereign debt pressures have driven precious metal prices to continuously hit historic highs, even surprising seasoned market participants. The already hot uptrend has intensified since the beginning of the year, with retail investors and speculators pouring into the gold market due to concerns about geopolitical risks, currency devaluation, and doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Large-scale speculative buyers from both China and the US have further driven up prices. Bitcoin, once dubbed the "new safe-haven asset" with the largest market capitalization, failed to benefit from these forces. Bitcoin continued its downward trajectory on Monday after the weekend sell-off, hitting its lowest point in ten months, dropping by over 40% since October and reaching levels close to those seen before Trump took office. On Monday, Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell by 2.5%, dropping to $74,541, close to the lowest level since Trump's return to the White House around the same level seen after the "Liberation Day" tariff impact on April 7, 2025. As of writing, Bitcoin prices have slightly recovered, hovering above $76,000. Therefore, despite the geopolitical pressures, a weakened US dollar, and rare extreme volatility in precious metals, Bitcoin has not attracted funds from the sell-off wave in precious metals, making gold a more volatile trading market at present. With Bitcoin returning to the price range seen after the "Liberation Day" tariff impact, cryptocurrency traders are increasingly concerned that the market has not seen a cascade of liquidations or systemic shocks, and the selling pressure seems to be more a result of the absence of buy-side liquidity, waning momentum, and weakening beliefs, suggesting that the price decline could be more sustained. Is the arrival of the "6k gold era" just a matter of time? However, gold prices still maintain their exclusive status in the financial markets as the best safe-haven and traditional asset for risk aversion. Despite the recent drastic fall last week, spot gold prices have risen by about 66% in the past twelve months, while Bitcoin has plummeted by 21%. Looking at the latest outlook for gold from Wall Street, while short-term selling pressure and volatility remain intense, the long-term bullish logic shows no signs of cracking. Top investment institutions on Wall Street, such as Bank of America and JPMorgan, believe that the uptrend in gold prices, which has set historical highs repeatedly this year and has already surpassed $5,000, is not over yet, and even has the potential to break the epic $6,000 mark in the future, moving towards the eagerly awaited "6K era" on Wall Street. From the current market consensus, gold is still stuck in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with cautious sentiment among buyers, but as the global competitive landscape reaches a critical juncture, the long-term need for central banks to hold gold assets and the bottom support from central bank funds will continue to act as the "ballast" of the gold bull market. According to Bank of America and JPMorgan, the long-term logic for gold has not reversed, and concerns in the international market about the sustainability of interest-rate debt in developed markets such as the US and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to drive central banks and private investment firms to increase their gold reserves. According to reports, despite the gold price falling by more than 20% from the historical high set last week, the enthusiasm of retail investors in Asia for buying gold is on the rise. On February 2, a report stated that the trading lounge for physical gold at the headquarters of United Overseas Bank in Singapore was crowded with investors queuing to purchase physical gold, highlighting that retail investors had not panicked and were showing significant characteristics of "buying on dips" for physical gold bars. The bank is the only financial institution in Singapore providing physical gold products to retail customers. The team led by Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, known as the "most accurate strategist on Wall Street," published a research report stating that short-term volatility does not change the long-term logic. The macro drivers pushing up gold and physical assets remain strong, and unless a more destructive "super-negative narrative" than the current macro narrative occurs, the gold bull market driven by the US's massive debt system and currency devaluation will not easily come to an end. Hartnett and other strategists pointed out that since Trump took office, the US dollar has actually depreciated by 12%. The strategist pointed out that a weak US dollar is a key measure to revitalize swing-state manufacturing in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. This is not just an economic account, but an essential choice for Trump's political survival. Data clearly shows that Trump's approval rating is highly negatively correlated with the trend of the US dollar during his term the weaker the dollar, the more stable the approval rating. Therefore, the strategy team led by Hartnett continues to believe that gold is expected to reach $6,000 by 2026. Another Wall Street financial giant, JPMorgan, said that the recent sharp decline in gold and silver was essentially a technical position clearance caused by over-crowded holdings and margin calls, rather than a fundamental reversal of the logic. JPMorgan's strategists wrote in a research report released on Sunday that gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted hedge tool in portfolios, and the physical demand for gold from central banks and retail investors remains far stronger than expected. JPMorgan predicts that driven by central bank demand and investor needs, the price of gold will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. Although the higher the gold price, the thinner the air, there is no risk of a structural collapse of the bull market.