CICC: Optimistic Outlook for China's Wind Power Installation in 2026, Suggests Focus on Overall Equipment Development.

Zhongjin released a research report stating that on January 28th, the National Energy Administration announced the 2025 national electricity statistical data, with the cumulative installed capacity of wind power reaching 640 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, and the newly added grid-connected capacity of wind power in China in 2025 reaching 119.87GW, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%. The bank believes that the demand for onshore and offshore wind power in China, as well as optimistic prospects for wind turbine exports, suggest to pay attention to: 1) the wind power complete machine segment with the potential for industry-wide profit reversal; 2) the direction of offshore piles, submarine cables, and wind turbines benefiting from the catalysis of European offshore wind orders; 3) the potential flexible segment of domestic offshore wind. The main points of Zhongjin are as follows: The newly added grid-connected wind power capacity in China in 2025 meets market expectations. The year-on-year increase in the newly added grid-connected wind power capacity in China in 2025 is significant, mainly benefiting from the concentrated construction of large base projects and the efforts of downstream owners to execute established installation plans by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan. As of now, the new lifting capacity for 2025 compiled by the Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA) has not been completed, and historically, the lifting capacity for most years is slightly higher than the newly added grid-connected capacity announced by the Energy Administration. Previously, the bank predicted that the newly added lifting capacity for wind power in China in 2025 would be 120-130GW, and the bank still maintains this judgment. The bank maintains an optimistic outlook for the newly added wind power installations in China in 2026. At the Chinese Wind Energy New Year Tea Party on January 24th, CWEA estimated that China's newly added wind power installations in 2026 would be 120GW, and would stabilize at around 120GW in 2027-2028. The bank believes that this caliber will provide a bottom-line support for industry demand in the next three years, and the actual industry demand may slightly exceed this scale, depending on the progress of onshore large base and offshore wind power projects. In addition, CWEA disclosed that China's cumulative wind turbine exports exceeded 28GW by the end of 2025 (excluding overseas production and sales), with more than 7.2GW in 2025 alone, a year-on-year growth of over 38%, making wind turbine exports an important driver of industry growth. Risks: - Industry demand for wind power falls short of expectations; - Intensified industry competition leads to declining profit margins; - Difficulties in expanding overseas markets.