Witness history! Japan's government bonds have entered the "4% era" for the first time in 30 years.

date
11:30 20/01/2026
avatar
GMT Eight
The 40-year Japanese government bond yield surged past the 4% mark on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since its issuance in 2007.
The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds broke through the 4% mark on Tuesday, reaching the highest level since the issuance of this type of bond in 2007. At the same time, it is the first time in over thirty years that the yield on all sovereign bonds of the country has reached this level. Market data shows that the yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds jumped 5.5 basis points during the early session, marking the first time the yield on Japanese government bonds has returned to this level since the 20-year Japanese bond yield hit 4% in December 1995. This surge marks a major historical turning point in the Japanese government bond market - the ultra-low interest rates maintained by the Bank of Japan for many years have previously kept Japanese bond yields far below those of similar bonds globally, but now the yield on Japan's 30-year bonds (around 3.6%) has surpassed that of German bonds with the same maturity (around 3.5%). The latest market trends also highlight that the Japanese bond market is facing accelerated selling which may lead to a collapse, with concerns in the market that the Japanese government's plan to reduce the consumption tax on food may further widen the fiscal deficit. Japanese Prime Minister Masae Toshi confirmed at a press conference on Monday that the lower house of parliament will be dissolved on Friday (23rd) and an early election will be held on February 8. Toshi promised that if his new coalition wins the right to govern, they will implement a temporary reduction in the consumption tax on food - lowering the current 8% tax rate to 0%. The "Center for Reform Union" formed by the merger of Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and former ruling coalition partner Komeito, is also planning to manage newly established government funds to raise the necessary funds to lower the consumption tax on food to 0%. Barclays Securities strategists Ayao Ehara and Shinichiro Kadota pointed out in a report: "We see significant risks at present, namely, that political parties may generally propose expansionary fiscal policies in the lower house election manifestos. The disappointing results of the Japanese bond auction before the upper house elections in July last year set a precedent, which is a bad omen for the 20-year Japanese bond auction to be held on Tuesday." Currently, investors are generally cautious about the 20-year Japanese government bond auction to be held on Tuesday at noon. The auction results may prove to be a key test for the Japanese bond market - market participants are focusing on whether the recent rise in yields can offset concerns about the impact of fiscal deterioration on bonds. On Monday, the yield on 20-year government bonds rose to 3.265%, the highest since 1999. Takahiro Otsuka, senior fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said: "Yields may continue to fluctuate before the election results are announced. The supply and demand situation in the 20-year bond market is not yet stable, so the auction results may be weak." Investors will also closely monitor the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting on Friday to glean clues about future interest rate paths. Bank of Japan officials are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of the yen on inflation, so although this week's meeting is likely to be on hold, the assessment is expected to influence the bank's future interest rate path.