Guotai Haitong: Integration of heaven and earth construction speeds up, focusing on the leading enterprises in satellite manufacturing and rocket launch terminals.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that China has applied for the addition of 200,000 satellites to cover 14 constellations. The number of applications in this round has increased by nearly an order of magnitude, which may lead to a new round of global attention to space strategic resources. From "more satellites, fewer rockets" to "supply and demand thriving", attention should be paid to satellite manufacturing and rocket launch leaders. 1) Satellite manufacturing end: It is recommended to focus on whole satellite manufacturing companies with large-scale and low-cost production capabilities, as well as core component suppliers such as phased array antennas, satellite laser communication terminals, and hall thrusters. 2) Rocket launch end: The huge launch gap is currently a major bottleneck, favoring top commercial rocket companies with "large capacity + recoverable" technology and related core component enterprises. 3) Ground facilities end: The entry of operators will drive the upgrade and replacement of ground communication stations and terminal equipment, so attention should be paid to relevant equipment suppliers. Recent Event: China recently submitted an application to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for the addition of 203,000 satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations. The CTC-1 and CTC-2 constellations each applied for 96,714 satellites, becoming the main forces in this round of applications. In addition to professional satellite operators such as China Star Net and Yuanxin Satellite, the applicants this time include a wide range of commercial aerospace companies such as Wireless Innovation Institute, Galaxy Space, State Grid Corporation, and traditional communication operators such as China Mobile Limited and China Telecom Corporation. Key points from Guotai Haitong: Application for over 200,000 satellites to seize the "high ground" of frequency orbit resources. The scale of the 203,000 satellite application submitted by China to the ITU far exceeds the total of the previous "GW Constellation" (about 13,000 satellites) and "Qianfan Constellation" (about 15,000 satellites), signaling a new era for China's low-orbit constellation construction from the "thousands of satellites" to the "tens of thousands of satellites" level. Among them, the CTC-1 and CTC-2 mega-constellations applied for nearly 193,000 satellites combined, becoming the absolute main forces. Against the backdrop of increasingly crowded LEO frequency orbit resources, this "saturated application" reflects the national strategic will, aiming to reserve sufficient development space for future 6G integrated network. Operators' strong entry accelerates the construction of integrated space and ground system. There has been a fundamental change in the structure of applicants, evolving from a single professional satellite operator (such as China Star Net, Yuanxin Satellite) towards a diversified landscape of "national teams + commercial aerospace + traditional operators". The entry of traditional communication giants such as China Mobile Limited, China Telecom Corporation (speculated to be related to China Telecom CorporationChina Telecom Corp) signifies that satellite internet is no longer an independent island, but will be deeply integrated into the ground 5G/6G network. With their large user base and ground station operation experience, the entry of operators will greatly accelerate the closure of the satellite internet business model and promote the popularization of Direct to Cell services. ITU milestones drive the urgent need for doubled capacity across the entire industry chain. According to ITU "Radio Regulations" and Resolution No. 35, new constellation applicants face strict "start-up deadlines": the first satellite must be launched in the 7th year, and 10%, 50%, and 100% of deployment must be completed in the 9th, 12th, and 14th years respectively. Faced with the huge number of 200,000 satellite applications, this means that China's aerospace industry must achieve the ability to launch tens of thousands of satellites annually in the next decade. The enormous performance pressure will directly the urgent need for rocket capacity (especially from large capacity recoverable rockets like Blue Arrow Aerospace) and satellite mass production manufacturing capabilities, requiring the industry to exponentially increase production capacity in the short term. Risks warning: Investment progress may not meet expectations, and technological breakthroughs may not meet expectations.