Concept tracking of Hong Kong stocks | Both gold and silver hit new highs. When will the precious metal feast end? (with concept stocks)

The trading in 2025 is nearing its end, and the global precious metals market is once again experiencing a historic rally. On December 26, the international gold and silver prices simultaneously hit a historical high, with the London spot gold reaching a peak of $4549.9 per ounce; silver performed even more vigorously, reaching a high of $79.4 per ounce intraday, with a year-to-date increase of over 174%. Since 2025, gold has led the precious metals market, with silver following closely behind. The market has experienced different stages throughout the year, driven by tariffs, volatile adjustments, interest rate expectations, and technical corrections. Just when the market believed the rally would end at a high, a new surge began, reaching new historical highs. Specifically, on December 26, the London spot gold price broke through the $4500 per ounce mark. Up to now, both COMEX gold futures and London spot gold prices have risen by more than 70% year-to-date. Silver has shown even more impressive performance. COMEX silver prices rose for five consecutive trading days from December 19 to 26, increasing from an opening of $65.44 to a high of $79.7. COMEX silver futures have accumulated an increase of over 172% since 2025. The domestic precious metals market followed suit, with Shanghai gold futures rising by 62% year-to-date, hitting a peak of 1024 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rising by over 157%, hitting a peak of 19215 yuan per kilogram. Amidst the volatile fluctuations, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on December 26 to adjust the trading parameters of gold and silver futures contracts starting from the close of settlement on December 30. This marks the third adjustment to risk control parameters for precious metals within the month. According to the latest notice, the revised daily price limit for gold and silver futures contracts is adjusted to 15%, the hedging margin ratio is adjusted to 16%, and the general holding margin ratio is adjusted to 17%. The market is also watching out for potential new trade risks facing silver. Silver was listed as a "critical mineral" by the U.S. Geological Survey in November, indicating that it may be subject to tariff discussions in the future. Since early October, 75 million ounces of silver have been withdrawn from New York Comex warehouses, but due to concerns about a sudden premium on American silver, many traders are cautious about shipping the metal overseas, further exacerbating the tightness in overseas markets. The global precious metals banquet, supported by multiple factors, continues to unfold. CITIC SEC analysis predicts that gold prices in 2026 are expected to continue benefiting from the liquidity easing brought about by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with global gold ETF inflows serving as an important source of buying pressure for gold. Trump also openly advocates for a looser monetary policy, as lower interest rates typically provide support for precious metals that do not yield interest. With concerns about the continued expansion of national debts, investors are accelerating their exit from sovereign bonds and fiat currencies, further supporting the demand for gold through "devaluation trades." At the same time, the supply and demand fundamentals are imbalanced. Goldman Sachs pointed out in a research report that the high linkage between silver and gold prices reflects the simultaneous flow of funds within the precious metals sector, but unlike gold, the continued expansion of industrial demand provides additional support for silver prices. Data from Bank of America shows that since 2021, the silver market has been in a constant state of undersupply, and global inventories have fallen to a ten-year low. Looking ahead, CICC believes that with gold prices already deviating from fundamental indicators and model fits, market volatility may increase significantly, and it is recommended to downplay gold price predictions and focus more on changing asset trends. The 2026 gold bull market may not be a one-way trend, but will fluctuate following the Federal Reserve's policies and the economic trends in the United States. Related stocks: Zijin Mining Group (02899): From 2020 to 2024, the CAGR of mineral gold production was 12%, ranking among the top in major gold mining companies globally; Plans for copper/gold production CAGR from 2024 to 2028 are both 8-10%; and with good realizability, the average completion rate of copper/gold production from 2014 to 2023 was 104/96%. The company also has strong cost-effective mergers and acquisitions ability and internal resource fission capability, with copper/gold resources increasing by 6/3 times from 2014 to 2023. JIANGXI COPPER (00358): Jiangxi Copper is an important silver production base in China, and its "Jiangtong brand" silver is a registered product with international recognition by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Although the silver business accounts for a small percentage (about 3.25%), as a by-product of copper and gold smelting, its production is stable and internationally competitive. If silver prices continue to strengthen, or industrial demand further increases, this business may bring additional income to the company. Shandong Gold Mining (01787): Considering the company's inventory situation and the progress of multiple new construction and expansion projects, as well as the abundant gold resources of its parent company Shandong Gold Mining Group, there is also anticipation of asset injection, and currently there is still room for gold prices to rise. It is predicted that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 will be 30.30, 50.83, and 59.38 billion yuan, respectively. CHI SILVER GP (00815): CHI SILVER GP is a leading professional silver producer and comprehensive operator in China, covering the entire industry chain of silver manufacturing, new retail of jewelry, and silver trading. The company has LBMA certification and produces "silver ingots with a purity of 99.999%", ranking at the highest level globally. In 2024, the company achieved total operating income of 4.319 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.97% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.966 million yuan, a decrease of 31.5% year-on-year.