End-of-year market suspense "Year-end surprise" is eagerly anticipated. How do institutions view this?

Due to the holiday season, the US stock market will be closed for a day and a half this week, leading to discussions about the historical "Santa Claus rally" on the rise. At the same time, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has broken through 7.0 for the first time since September 2024, becoming another focus in the market. The so-called "Santa Claus rally" refers to the seasonal upward trend that occurs from the last 5 trading days of December to the first 2 trading days of the following year. This concept was first proposed by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Stock Trader's Almanac, in 1972, and is usually attributed to decreased holiday trading activity, end-of-year portfolio adjustments, and the generally positive seasonal sentiment of investors. Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a 1.3% increase during this period, with a positive return rate as high as 79%, making it known as "Wall Street's year-end surprise." As the "Santa Claus rally" unfolds, with the Christmas holiday approaching, the US stock market closes early, leading to historic highs for the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with large tech stocks leading the market upward. Chris Larkin, Managing Director of Trading and Investing at Morgan Stanley E-Trade, publicly stated, "If there really is a Santa Claus rally this year, his gift bag is likely to be filled with positive tech sentiment." Market interpretation suggests that this statement indicates that this year's "Santa Claus rally rebound" may be led by tech stocks, as the tech sector has been a core driver of the overall US stock market's upward trend this year. Looking back at the period from 2016 to 2024, the US stock indices have only seen a decline during one "Santa Claus rally" period. Although last year this seasonal trend did not materialize as expected, many institutions are still hopeful for this year's trend. However, some institutions caution that one should approach this seasonal trend rationally. Sinolink Wealth Management Center mentioned that after the holidays, the market will eventually return to its normal state of calm and rationality, but the power of trends should not be overlooked. The "Santa Claus rally" is generally attributed to four main factors. Firstly, the narrowing of volatility due to reduced trading volume at the end of the year. Secondly, the year-end portfolio "window dressing" effect by fund managers. Thirdly, the resonance of holiday consumer spending with market sentiment. And finally, the selling of losing assets for tax purposes at the end of the year. While there is no consensus on the driving logic behind the "Santa Claus rally," historical market performance indicates that these four factors play a significant role in the seasonal trend.