Industrial: Which industries have a stronger correlation with the RMB exchange rate?
The high dependency on imported raw materials and the appreciation of the renminbi drive down the cost of imports: including coal, iron and steel, some chemical products (plastics, chemical raw materials, agricultural chemicals, rubber), energy metals, paper, airports, agricultural product processing, etc.
Industrial releases a research report stating that among various industries, the median of the full-time correlation and rolling three-month correlation between stock prices and USD to RMB exchange rate since 2016, the industries with higher negative correlation (meaning RMB appreciation driving stock price increase) can be classified into three categories:
1. Industries with high reliance on imported raw materials, where RMB appreciation drives down import costs: including coal, steel, some chemical products (plastics, chemical raw materials, agricultural chemicals, rubber), energy metals, paper, aviation airports, and Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group processing, among others.
2. Industries with high USD liability costs, where RMB appreciation drives down USD liability costs: such as the construction real estate chain (real estate development, real estate services, professional engineering) that lowers financing costs through overseas financing and expands financing channels, logistics, optical electronics, trade, and diversified finance companies that have high USD liabilities due to cross-border business currency matching needs.
3. RMB purchasing power increase driving domestic/cross-border consumption demand: mainly focused on service consumption and high-end consumption sectors, including cross-border e-commerce, hotel catering, jewelry, etc.
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