Open Source Securities: CHINA JINMAO (00817) sales performance strong against the trend, profit recovery through the cycle, maintain "buy" rating.

Open Source Securities released a research report stating that since 2023, CHINA JINMAO (00817) has adjusted its development strategy in response to market fluctuations, and its fundamentals have continued to improve after hitting bottom. In the first half of 2025, the company's sales performance has steadily increased against the trend, actively reserving core land parcels to ensure long-term profitability, and its income level is expected to continue to recover. The firm predicts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025-2027 will be 1.11 billion, 1.56 billion, and 1.62 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 0.08, 0.12, and 0.12 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 13.5, 9.7, and 9.3 times respectively. With strong support from its shareholder, China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina), strong sales and land acquisition against the trend, and clear trend of performance recovery, the company is optimistic about the profitability rebound after business structure adjustment, maintaining a "buy" rating. Key points from Open Source Securities are as follows: Strong sales performance against the trend, increased land acquisition intensity In the first half of 2025, the company's sales amount reached 53.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, entering the top 10 in overall sales ranking for the first time. As of the first half of 2025, the company's unsold value is approximately 320 billion yuan, with 69% concentrated in economically developed regions such as North China and East China, and 88% located in first- and second-tier cities. Compared to the end of 2024, the proportion of unsold value in first-tier cities has increased by 9 percentage points, further optimizing the value structure. Excellent performance in property investment, steady expansion in property services The company's property investment sector has been operating steadily for a long time, providing stable cash flow for the company. The company focuses on boutique holdings, improves asset management quality, ensures "one-in-one-out", gradually phases out inefficient assets, and maintains a reasonable asset size. Leveraging the advantages of central enterprise platforms and group synergy, the company's property service sector focuses on core cities in first- and second-tier cities. 92% of the managed area is distributed in high-tier cities, with a year-on-year increase of 11% to 110 million square meters in the first half of 2025. 85% of new signed projects are located in strategically important cities. Maintaining a healthy financial condition, optimizing debt structure The company continues to optimize its domestic and foreign debt structure and reduce financing costs. In the first half of 2025, the average cost of new domestic and foreign financing for the company was 2.70%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points compared to the end of 2024. The proportion of foreign currency debt decreased to 21%, while development loans and operating loans increased to 41%. The company's financial status is stable, financing channels are unobstructed, and its "three red lines" are all maintained in the green. The company successfully issued multiple low-interest rate bonds and has a clear cost advantage in new project development loans. Risk warning: risks include lower-than-expected support from real estate policies, liquidity risks resulting from lower-than-expected sales turnover, and risks of commercial property rental and occupancy rate decline due to volatility in the leasing market.