Bitcoin winter is coming? Whale Strategy (MSTR.US) pauses buying spree, hoarding $2.2 billion in cash to prepare for winter.

"Bitcoin whale" Strategy (MSTR.US) increased its cash reserves to $2.19 billion in the past week and has paused its Bitcoin purchases. The world's largest digital asset reserve company appears to be preparing for a long cryptocurrency winter. According to a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, Strategy raised $748 million by selling common stock in the seven days ending December 21. In the two weeks prior, the company had purchased about $20 billion worth of Bitcoin, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to around $60 billion. Earlier this month, Strategy set aside a $1.4 billion reserve fund to pay for future dividends and interest, aiming to alleviate concerns in the market that it may be forced to sell Bitcoin as token prices continue to fall. It is reported that the company's free cash flow from its software business is not enough to cover dividends or interest. TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza pointed out that Strategy pays about $824 million annually in interest and dividends. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped by about 30% since hitting a historic high in early October. During the same period, Strategy's stock price has plummeted over 50%. According to the company's website data, its key valuation indicator mNAV (the ratio of the company's enterprise value to its Bitcoin value) was around 1.1 on Monday. This serves as a reminder that investors are still concerned that this indicator may quickly turn negative after previously enjoying a significant premium. It is worth noting that index provider MSCI is considering excluding companies that hold Bitcoin or other digital assets in treasury as part of their indices, and has sought feedback from the investment community on this matter. MSCI stated, "MSCI proposes to exclude from the MSCI All Investable Market Index Series companies with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets." The consultation period will last until December 31, with the final decision set to be announced by January 15, 2026. This means that Strategy may face the risk of exclusion from mainstream indices such as MSCI. Currently, Strategy is a component of the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA Index, and MSCI Global Index. In a report released in November, analysts at JPMorgan warned that about $9 billion of Strategy's total market value may exist in the form of passive holdings through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that are linked to major benchmark indices. The analysts cautioned, "If MSCI persists with the exclusion plan, it could lead to outflows of $2.8 billion for Strategy... If other index providers follow suit and exclude the company from all other stock indices, the outflow scale could reach $8.8 billion." Since Bitcoin's strong rally in early October and reaching a historic peak of over $126,000, its price has plummeted rapidly like a cliff, catching the bullish camp off guard, and the cryptocurrency market has been unstable. During this period, trading volumes have remained low, investor confidence has been shaken, and many have chosen to exit the Bitcoin ETF market. At the same time, the derivatives market has shown a cautious wait-and-see attitude, lacking the willingness to bet on a price rebound. Therefore, Bitcoin may face its fourth annual decline this year, the first time without a major scandal or industry collapse. At the same time, Bitcoin is facing a crucial test at the end of the year. The options market shows that around $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire on this Friday, potentially amplifying market volatility on an already high basis. From the options structure, market sentiment remains clearly bearish. Forster pointed out that Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has risen to nearly 45%, while the options skew remains around -5%, showing a higher demand for downside protection than upside bets. Longer-term skews also remain in negative territory, indicating that traders are preparing for continued downside risks in the first and second quarters of 2026. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director of Fidelity, previously wrote that Bitcoin may have completed the upward phase of its four-year halving cycle, and the $125,000 peak reached in October may represent the cycle's top characteristics. He noted that historically, a "Bitcoin winter" typically lasts about a year, and 2026 may be a "consolidation year" with key support levels around $65,000-$75,000. However, he emphasized that he remains a long-term bull on Bitcoin.