Zhongjin: Accelerating the construction of AI data centers, magnetic levitation compressors have a good opportunity for domestic substitution.

CICC released a research report stating that the construction of AI data centers is driving rapid growth in the refrigeration compressor market. Chiller units are the core of refrigeration, and compressors are the core components of chiller units. Magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors are expected to become mainstream. Compared to screw compressors, magnetic levitation compressors better meet the requirements of high cooling capacity and low energy consumption, and there is potential for rapid domestic substitution amid tight supply and demand. Key points from CICC include: - Growth in AI data center refrigeration business, with chiller units as the core of refrigeration: Global investment in computing power is increasing, with the capital expenditure of the four major cloud vendors in 25Q3 reaching nearly one trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of over 70%. Increased chip power consumption requires at least 50-120kW per rack, leading to higher demand for cooling capacity. High-power, low-energy consumption, and low PUE refrigeration models have become market targets. Liquid cooling solutions have the advantages of strong heat dissipation, low density, and energy savings, effectively reducing PUE to around 1.2. Refrigeration equipment accounts for 40% of the total energy consumption of data centers, with chiller units consuming about 60-85% of refrigeration equipment. CICC believes that chiller units are the core components of the primary side refrigeration cycle. - Compressors are the core components of chiller units, and magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors are expected to become mainstream: Compressors account for over 50% of the cost of chiller units, with power consumption accounting for approximately 72% of the total consumption. Different types of compressors correspond to different refrigeration efficiency and application scenarios: 1) Traditional data centers mainly adopt air-cooling, with mature screw compressor technology meeting the corresponding cooling requirements. The supply-side screw compressor market is relatively concentrated, with a CR5 ratio of approximately 86.5%. 2) Data center rack power can reach over 50kW, and CICC estimates that magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors can achieve over 40% energy savings compared to screw compressors due to larger cooling capacity, higher efficiency, and lower energy consumption. The report assumes that all new AIDC data centers in the future will adopt magnetic levitation compressors, with the market for magnetic levitation chiller units reaching approximately 28.83 billion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 70.4%. - Leading overseas magnetic levitation centrifugal compressor manufacturers are at full capacity, while domestic brands continue to innovate with the potential for domestic substitution: The overseas leader in magnetic levitation compressors, Danfoss, is currently operating at full capacity. Domestic companies have made technological breakthroughs in core components of magnetic levitation compressors, such as magnetic bearings and high-speed permanent magnet motors. CICC believes that with sufficient product validation, domestic substitution can gradually be achieved due to relatively mature technology and higher cost-effectiveness. Risk warning: - AIDC construction and computing power investment progress is slower than expected. - Increased market competition risks. - Risks associated with iterative new technology routes.