Zhongtai: The trend of market-oriented electricity production is clear, and the demand for photovoltaics is entering the observation window.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that from January to October 2025, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 252.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. Influenced by Policy 136, the demand for photovoltaic installation was brought forward in 2025, with significant installations in the second quarter, a temporary dip in the third quarter, a low point in August, and gradual recovery in September and October. According to CPIA's forecast, China's new photovoltaic installations in 2025 are expected to reach 270-300GW, with a year-on-year change of -3% to 8%, basically stable. The report states that China's photovoltaic installations will directly impact the global installation situation. Looking ahead to 2026, the photovoltaic industry association and mainstream consulting agencies have not yet made clear forecasts for new installations in 2026. The bank believes that after the marketization of electricity, the price of photovoltaic power generation may decrease, and new photovoltaic projects may have a period of observation. However, based on industry supply-side reforms, stable matching of supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry, and ensuring the sustainable development of the industry, it is expected that China's new photovoltaic installations in 2026 will remain above 200GW.