HK Stock Market Move | The aluminum sector strengthened in the last period of trading, with the resilience of off-season demand still evident. Institutions recommend remaining optimistic about aluminum prices in the medium to long term.

The end of the aluminum industry stock is strong, as of the deadline, Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600) rose 5.77% to HK$11.74; NANSHAN AL INTL (02610) rose 3.69% to HK$44.94; CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) rose 1.94% to HK$33.64. On the news front, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Futures pointed out that the current macroeconomic sentiment at home and abroad tends to be positive, and the market is waiting for key economic data from the United States before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The latest ADP employment data shows that private companies reduced 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, far below the market's expected increase of 10,000, enhancing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting next week. Shenwan Hongyuan Group Futures also pointed out that the recent rise in aluminum prices has been mainly affected by silver and copper, and in the long term, limited supply and low inventory provide substantial support for aluminum prices. Although demand in December is in the traditional off-peak consumption season, overall downstream consumption sentiment is weakening, but there has not been a significant decline, and demand resilience is still evident. It is recommended to remain optimistic about aluminum prices in the medium to long term. Guotai Junan Futures stated that in the medium to long term, global aluminum supply growth remains limited, and the market is in a long-term "tight balance" state. The key risk point is Indonesian production capacity, as Indonesia, with cheap coal-fired power and bauxite, is planning a significant amount of low-cost electrolytic aluminum production capacity. However, the scale of production capacity with a certain certainty of electricity supply in Indonesia may still be relatively controlled, and there are still doubts about the speed of accelerating new supply in Indonesia.