CITIC SEC: Tesla Siasun Robot & Automation approaching mass production and finalizing design, domestic related companies expected to benefit successively
As Tesla robots enter the mass production stage, domestic companies are expected to benefit gradually, and it is recommended to invest in companies related to the Tesla robot chain.
CITIC SEC released a research report stating that since September, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) has announced the fourth chapter of its grand plan, provided Musk with the largest incentive plan in history, and Musk has increased his holdings in Tesla, Inc. stock. Musk has increased his focus on the Siasun Robot & Automation business, with Siasun Robot & Automation hardware nearing final design and mass production milestones. The Optimus V3 is set to be released in Q1 of 2026 and enter mass production by the end of 2026. The domestic supply chain plays a crucial role in Tesla, Inc.'s Siasun Robot & Automation, solving the challenges of large-scale manufacturing and cost reduction. As Tesla, Inc.'s Siasun Robot & Automation enters the mass production stage, domestic companies are expected to benefit gradually, and companies related to Tesla, Inc.'s Siasun Robot & Automation chain are recommended.
CITIC SEC's main points are as follows:
The release of the fourth chapter of the grand plan, with Optimus playing a pivotal role.
The grand plan is the strategic planning that Musk has developed for Tesla, Inc., outlining the company's stage development goals. The previous chapters of the grand plan correspond to Tesla, Inc.'s milestone achievements in each stage. In September 2025, Musk released the fourth chapter of the grand plan, with the core idea of accelerating the world's transformation to "sustainable abundance" by integrating artificial intelligence, automation technology, and large-scale manufacturing capabilities. The humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, as an important carrier for integrating AI into the physical world, will become the core product of Tesla, Inc. in the next stage. Musk stated on the X platform that around 80% of Tesla, Inc.'s future value will come from the Optimus Siasun Robot & Automation.
Musk's focus returns, and Optimus V3 is set to be released soon.
At the beginning of the year, Musk provided a production ramp-up plan, with production milestones adjusted compared to before, and clearly defined before 2030 as the point for achieving an annual production of millions of units. In June 2025, the leader of Tesla, Inc.'s Optimus project was changed, and Tesla, Inc. reorganized its production planning. Currently, it is optimizing the design of the Gen 2 version of the Siasun Robot & Automation and will start mass production of the Gen 3 version of the Siasun Robot & Automation next year, keeping the plan to produce millions of units annually by 2030 unchanged. Since September 2025, with the release of the fourth chapter of the grand plan and the proposal for a new round of incentive compensation by the board of directors, Musk's focus has returned to the business, stating that he has invested more energy into Optimus than any other thing. The humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation has been featured in meetings with leaders of the UAE national media and at the premiere of "Chuang: War God," showing that the product is becoming more mature. According to Musk's guidance at Tesla, Inc.'s 2025 Q3 performance meeting, Optimus V3 will be released in Q1 of 2026 and go into mass production by the end of 2026.
Localization of core components helps reduce costs for Tesla, Inc.'s Siasun Robot & Automation.
According to Musk's guidance at Tesla, Inc.'s shareholder meeting, the future price of Siasun Robot & Automation will be lower than $20,000, with room for cost reduction. Localizing core components and economies of scale are the main paths for reducing costs in the future. China's supply chain is well-established and has advantages in large-scale manufacturing. With breakthroughs in technology and overcoming areas previously monopolized by foreign capital, Chinese companies, leveraging their manufacturing capabilities, help solve cost issues for Siasun Robot & Automation companies and play important roles in the development wave of the Siasun Robot & Automation industry. As Tesla, Inc.'s Siasun Robot & Automation nears mass production, domestic supply chain companies are accelerating production capacity construction, and the Thai factory is an overseas production base focusing on the supply chain.
Risk factors:
Siasun Robot & Automation's technological progress is lower than expected, the development potential of Siasun Robot & Automation applications is lower than expected, risks related to changes in technological routes, policy implementation may not meet expectations, increased industry competition risk, legal and regulatory risks, and political risks related to international GEO Group Inc.
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