The institution claims that the cryptocurrency market has entered a bear market phase, and the next key support level for Bitcoin is near $93,000.
Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark again on Thursday.
Bitcoin breached the $100,000 mark once again on Thursday, dropping significantly against the backdrop of deteriorating risk sentiment on Wall Street and heavy selling of tech stocks. Bitcoin fell by as much as 3.9% during the day, touching $97,956. Over $450 billion in market value has evaporated since early October, as key buyers such as large funds, ETF allocation institutions, and corporate treasuries that have supported Bitcoin this year have all started to retreat, leading to a rapid turnaround in the market.
10x Research stated that the crypto market has entered a "confirmed bear market phase." Weak ETF inflows, continued selling by long-term holders, and lackluster interest from retail investors all suggest that market sentiment is quietly deteriorating. The organization identified a trend reversal signal in mid-October and currently places the next key support level for Bitcoin around $93,000.
Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, pointed out that Bitcoin has been under pressure recently from a lot of spot selling and corporate hedging demand. As the narrative around crypto itself lacks positivity, its correlation with traditional assets has quickly increased, becoming an important driver in the day's market downturn.
Global market volatility has also created unfavorable conditions for Bitcoin's decline. Earlier this week, the brief stock market rebound driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown quickly faded. With key economic data delayed, the market is reevaluating whether the Fed has room to cut interest rates in the near future, putting pressure on growth sectors like tech stocks and crypto assets that rely on liquidity.
U.S. stocks closely associated with the crypto market have seen a brutal performance, with Strategy (MSTR.US) experiencing continuous plunges in stock price. Its long-standing net asset value premium has nearly disappeared, and billions of investor funds have evaporated instantly.
In the derivatives market, demand for hedging has quickly increased. According to data from Deribit, a subsidiary of Coinbase (COIN.US), the demand for put options with strike prices below $100,000 has significantly risen, with protective contracts trading most actively around $90,000 and $95,000. Despite Bitcoin's 5% rise this year compared to the beginning and over 40% increase since the 2024 U.S. election, its upward momentum has significantly slowed, with institutional interest continuing to decline. The real turning point in sentiment occurred in early October, when nearly $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in a single day, triggering the start of a chain of declines.
Based on historical experience, the current downtrend may not have bottomed out yet. 10x Research pointed out that two bear markets in the summer of 2024 and early 2025 saw declines of 30-40%; whereas Bitcoin has only pulled back by over 20% from its 2025 peak, which is not enough to signal a true bottom yet. "It's not just the smell of a bear market now, we are already in it," the organization emphasized.
The organization stressed that Bitcoin continues to operate below key long-term moving averages, a signal that has historically marked turning points in the crypto cycle, and currently indicates sustained weakening market momentum. With selling pressure continuing to build up and macro uncertainty rising, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may face a longer period of testing ahead.
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