Shengbao Bank: The long-term positive trend of gold remains unchanged, with the next rise waiting for the east wind.

Sheng Bao Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, released a report on Monday stating that since hitting a historical high of $4359.40 per ounce on October 20th, gold futures have fallen by nearly 8%, with market sentiment shifting from excitement to caution during this period. The market is currently reassessing whether many bullish factors facing gold in 2025, such as uncertainty in US trade policy and strong central bank gold buying demand, have already been fully reflected in futures prices. However, Hansen speculates that gold still has further room for upside, although the timing of when this will happen is uncertain. He said, "The current pullback in gold is more like a brief consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Seasonal demand weakness, short-term disruptions in Chinese policy, and a stronger US dollar have been the reasons for the short-term decline, but these factors have not changed the long-term positive outlook." It was reported that Chinese authorities announced over the weekend that retailers who purchase gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will no longer be able to fully deduct value-added tax. As the world's largest consumer of gold, China's tax adjustment has sparked concerns among some analysts who believe it may affect global market sentiment. However, Dan Ghali of TD Securities pointed out that wholesale demand for China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery in the previous quarter was 28% lower than the five-year average, and "Chinese end-consumer gold demand has been weak for months, so this VAT exemption policy adjustment may not immediately impact gold prices." Gold futures saw a slight increase on Monday, marking the third day of gains in the past four trading days and crossing back over the $4000 per ounce mark. Investors are now awaiting the release of US ADP employment data on Wednesday and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) later in the week for clues regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy. Due to the government shutdown in the US resulting in a halt in the release of key economic data by agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, analysts believe this has created a cautious market atmosphere of "wait-and-see" rather than taking action. On Monday, gold futures for delivery in November on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.4% to $4000.30 per ounce, while silver futures for the same period fell by 0.2% to $47.888 per ounce.