In the political deadlock, GDP accelerates against the trend, with France's economy growing by 0.5% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations.

date
16:15 30/10/2025
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GMT Eight
The eurozone's second largest economy, France, saw output growth of 0.5% in the third quarter, higher than the 0.3% in the previous three months, and more than double the analysts' expectations.
Notice that the French economy unexpectedly grew at its fastest rate since 2023, alleviating concerns that it may lose momentum due to a new round of political turmoil. Its output in the third quarter grew by 0.5% - higher than the 0.3% in the previous three months, and more than double what analysts had expected. Data released by the French statistical agency INSEE on Thursday showed that improvements in trade and domestic demand were driving economic growth. Finance Minister Roland Leskurl described this result as "an outstanding performance." This report is part of a large amount of data released in the eurozone today, including the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. These data may indicate that the group of 20 countries is managing well against the tariff turmoil sparked by Donald Trump. However, aside from Spain's continued strong performance, any new growth momentum may have to wait until next year when countries increase defense and infrastructure spending. Economic data in other eurozone countries in the third quarter varied. Belgiums data showed an acceleration from 0.2% to 0.3%, while Ireland, Finland, and Lithuania saw contractions. Analysts estimate that the eurozone's economy grew by 0.1% in the third quarter - the same as the previous three months. Due to uncertainties about whether additional monetary easing policies can significantly boost output and with inflation under control, the European Central Bank is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 2% this afternoon. According to a recent survey by Bloomberg, this level of interest rates may remain for two years. French political turmoil worries businesses France's strong data comes at a time of serious uncertainty in the country, with Prime Minister Sbastien Lecornu working to stabilize the budget and avoid being ousted from the fragmented National Assembly like his two predecessors. Deteriorating fiscal and political backgrounds have triggered a series of credit rating downgrades, with French central bank governor Franois Villeroy de Galhau warning that France's inability to cope with increasing debt will lead to a "gradual suffocation." Economist Jean Darbault said: "With a surge in private investment and strong growth in aviation and chemical exports, economic growth has proven to be more resilient than expected. But this is unlikely to last, as the impact of political uncertainty may become heavier around the end of the year. Looking ahead, we expect the economy to rebound gradually in 2026 as the reduction in fiscal consolidation and easing trade uncertainties counter the impact of political uncertainty." In search of a way to break the deadlock, Lecornu has suspended President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform for 2023 and allowed Parliament to freely decide the budget, which may increase the tax burden on businesses. "Despite political turmoil and international uncertainty, our businesses continue to invest, export, and drive the country forward," Leskurl said. "Quickly passing a budget that maintains confidence for businesses and households is crucial to sustaining this momentum." Political risks are eroding confidence among businesses, households, and investors. Private sector activity shrank for the 14th consecutive month in October, and the sell-off in the bond market is pushing France's borrowing costs above those of its European counterparts. However, the INSEE report shows that business investment grew by 0.9% in the third quarter - the strongest growth in over two years. Exports jumped by 2.2%, consumer spending grew by 0.1%, matching the pace of the previous three months. Another report showed that consumer spending in September increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, contrary to expectations of stagnation. The statistics agency also revised up August's data by 0.1 percentage point to 0.2%.