After gold fell for three consecutive days, analysts say do not miss the opportunity to buy low. The probability of it rising to $5000 is greater than falling back to $3000.

Gold has experienced a significant pullback in the past week, with the market potentially missing out on a "discounted gold buying" window amid expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Given the possibility of another rate cut later this year, industry insiders believe that investors may have another opportunity to buy at lower prices. Ryan McIntyre, Senior Partner at Sprott focusing on precious metal asset management, stated that while price retracements are inevitable, the long-term growth logic of gold remains unchanged. The continuous erosion of global trust systems is driving the market to seek independent assets not tied to any institution or counterparty. He pointed out that the high deficits and debts in Western economies, particularly the United States, will "increase sovereign risk" in the medium to long term, providing support for gold prices. On Tuesday, the most active December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $1,983.1 per ounce, down 0.9% for the day, marking the third consecutive day of decline. Since hitting a historical closing high of $4,359.4 on October 20, the price of gold has retraced nearly 9%, but is still up nearly 3% for the month and has gained close to 51% year-to-date. Aakash Doshi, Precious Metals Director at DWS Investment Management, described this adjustment as "temporary," with potential buying zones expected to be between $3,600 and $3,650. CME FedWatch shows a high probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, stated that lowering rates amid high inflation will "sustain the bullish narrative for gold," as declining interest rates are favorable for zero-yield assets like gold. Gleason added that there is still a significant dollar exposure globally and a lack of gold exposure, and once the bubble-like sentiment subsides, gold priced in various fiat currencies is still likely to rise. Historical experiences are also reinforcing market expectations. After the Federal Reserve's first 25 basis point rate cut on September 17 this year, gold briefly retraced, then hit a new peak of $4,398 on October 20. The market expects another rate cut later this year, with possibly further cuts in 2026. Doshi stated that structural factors supporting the price of gold, such as high fiscal debts, central bank gold purchases, policy uncertainties, and the high correlation between US stocks and bonds, still exist, making gold a hedge and allocation asset against "left tail risk" (extreme losses). Doshi further pointed out that the probability of gold rising to $5,000 is "higher than falling to $3,000," and that the gold market has completed a repricing. He believes that in Western countries, gold is still significantly underallocated as a liquidity substitute asset. McIntyre advises investors with insufficient exposure to "gradually build positions," avoiding timing risks, and to consider physical gold as a long-term strategic allocation, with a target allocation of 10% in the portfolio and regular rebalancing. A broader strategy suggests that the allocation of gold (including physical and ETFs) should be in the range of 5%-20%.