Brazilian Farmers Expand Soybean Output as China Turns Away From U.S. Amid Trade Tensions

Brazilian farmers are rushing to expand soybean production as China cuts off purchases from the United States amid an escalating trade dispute with the Trump administration. For growers like Andrey Rodrigues in São Paulo state, the surge in Chinese demand is creating a sudden boom. Local traders have been urging farmers to plant more, promising to buy every ton they can produce for export to China.

China’s customs data showed that in September, the country imported no soybeans from the U.S. - the first time since 2018. Instead, Brazil now supplies over 70% of China’s total soybean imports, while the U.S. share has dropped to barely a fifth. Between January and August, Brazil exported more than 77 million metric tons of soybeans to China, compared with 17 million tons from the United States.

Farmers see this as a golden window. “We need to seize the moment,” Rodrigues said, noting that he is locking in futures contracts for his next harvest. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the upcoming soybean crop to rise nearly 4% to around 178 million metric tons, though analysts say that projection could be revised higher as Chinese orders keep growing.

Economists caution that the shift may be temporary, driven by tariffs rather than long-term structural change. Still, Brazil enjoys a political advantage: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains close ties with Beijing, unlike Argentina’s more U.S.-aligned government.

Meanwhile, American farmers are feeling the squeeze. Many are redirecting exports toward smaller Asian markets or investing in alternative uses such as biodiesel. “China’s shown they’ll buy wherever it’s cheapest,” said Indiana farmer Kevin Cox.

For now, Brazil is benefiting from China’s pivot, but even local producers like Rodrigues recognize the fragile balance. “This is an opportunity for us, but it shouldn’t come from others’ pain,” he said. “There needs to be harmony in global trade.”