Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures collectively fell. Netflix and Texas Instruments plunged after their performances, while Tesla released its earnings report after market close.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the opening of the U.S. stock market on October 22 (Wednesday), the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.00%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.27%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell 0.21%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.90%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.21%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 1.96% to $58.36 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 1.83% to $62.44 per barrel. Market news U.S. stock market bullish turn cautious! Bank of America warns of five major risks. Since the start of the bull market in the U.S. stock market over three years ago, Bank of America Corp stock strategist Savita Subramanian has been a steadfast optimist. However, even she and her team have recently found reasons to be concerned about the future direction of the stock market. Subramanian listed five emerging risks that could impact the S&P 500 index, including: the S&P 500 index valuation being at an extremely high level; signals of an impending bear market accumulating; risks posed by missing government data; speculative activity and private lending risks; and liquidity shocks. She warned that private lending risks spreading to banks, institutions being forced to sell index funds could trigger a major decline, and recommended prioritizing individual stock allocations. The Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates next week, but the path of interest rates next year remains uncertain! An economist survey shows that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week and again in December; but there is still serious disagreement among surveyed economists about the level of interest rates at the end of next year. Economists have given seven different forecasts for the level of interest rates at the end of next year, ranging from 2.25% to 2.50% to 3.75% to 4.00%. Part of the increased uncertainty is speculation about who will succeed Chairman Powell at the Federal Reserve after his term ends in May next year. The current Federal Reserve faces a dual risk: tariffs could lead to further inflation in an already high inflation environment, and the labor market could weaken further. The Federal Reserve appears to place more importance on the latter, as it cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since December 2023 last month. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. chief economist: Market forecasts for U.S. GDP are overly optimistic. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warned that market estimates of U.S. GDP may be overly optimistic, as a data vacuum during the government shutdown may eventually drag down the previously optimistic outlook for employment data. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., emphasized that during the government shutdown, estimates of U.S. GDP sharply increased, with projected GDP of 3.8% in the second quarter and 3.3% in the third quarter. According to some estimates, these numbers may be even higher. For example, the Atlanta Fed wrote in an update on October 17 that GDP in the third quarter could be as high as 3.9%. In terms of employment, Hatzius pointed out that in surveys of sectors such as manufacturing and services, labor market outlook indicators have been "significantly below 50, consistent with a trend of stagnation or decline in employment." He added: "Because employment market indicators typically provide more reliable information about current economic growth than preliminary GDP estimates, this weakness further strengthens our belief that the signals of second/third quarter GDP are too positive." U.S. inflation on the rise again? Alternative indicators show the highest increase in two years. According to PriceStats data based on online retail prices, U.S. inflation rose by 2.6% year-on-year in September, reaching the highest level in two years, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase, mainly driven by significant price increases in furniture and household equipment. Additionally, data shows that in September, the Consumer Price Index for durable goods and personal care products rose by 6% month-on-month, the fastest month-on-month increase since June, driven mainly by rising costs of personal care products and communication devices. The U.S. government shutdown continues to the second longest in history, exacerbating economic impact. The U.S. government shutdown has now lasted for 22 days, becoming the second longest government shutdown in history. The situation remains unresolved as both parties are deadlocked over expiring health care subsidies. With U.S. President Trump expected to visit Asia later this week, U.S. Congressmen and aides have expressed the belief that the government shutdown may continue into November, and may even surpass the 35-day shutdown during Trump's previous term. The economic impact of this U.S. government shutdown will further intensify this week. Economist Anna Wong states that the government shutdown will lead to a slight temporary rise in the unemployment rate, but when the government resumes operation, the unemployment rate will return to 4.3%. Individual stock news Unprecedented lineup, but profits fall victim to "ambush"! Netflix (NFLX.US) misses earnings expectations due to tax case in Brazil. Netflix stated that its third-quarter earnings were affected by a tax dispute in Brazil. The financial report shows that Netflix's third-quarter revenue increased by 17% to $11.5 billion, in line with Wall Street expectations. However, due to Brazilian tax expenses, earnings per share were $5.87, lower than analysts' estimated $6.94; quarterly operating profit was $3.24 billion, about $400 million lower than the company's own forecast and analyst estimates. However, the company's outlook for the current quarter (fourth quarter) is in line with Wall Street expectations. As of the time of writing, Netflix fell nearly 7% on Wednesday pre-market. Under the shadow of tariffs, "Simulation King" Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN.US) hints at a slowdown in recovery. The financial report shows that Texas Instruments Incorporated's Q3 revenue increased by 14% year-on-year to $4.74 billion, slightly higher than the market's $4.65 billion expectations; earnings per share were $1.48, below the market's $1.49 expectations. The company expects the overall revenue range for the fourth quarter to be between $4.22 billion and $4.58 billion, with the midpoint below the market's estimate of about $4.5 billion; the expected earnings per share are expected to be around $1.26, below the market's $1.39 expectations. Texas Instruments Incorporated's outlook for performance indicates that customers are slowing down their orders in response to escalating global trade tensions and a relatively weak economic period. As of the time of writing, Texas Instruments Incorporated fell nearly 8% pre-market on Wednesday. With a 15% increase in revenue and a 27% surge in profits, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.US) dispels regional bank fears with a "better-than-expected financial report" for Q3. The financial report shows that the bank's third-quarter revenue increased by 15.2% year-on-year to $9.382 billion, while net profit surged by over 27% to $2.502 billion, equivalent to earnings per share of $2.28, significantly better than the expectations of most Wall Street analysts, easing market tensions. Last Thursday, concerns were raised in the market due to loan fraud cases disclosed by two regional banks in the U.S., Zions Bancorporation, N.A. and Western Alliance Bancorp. As of the time of writing, Western Alliance Bancorp rose nearly 2% pre-market on Wednesday. Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG.US) reports a strong 23% increase in Q3 revenue, with robust growth in Da Vinci surgeries. The financial report published by the global leader in minimally invasive care and the pioneer of assisted surgeries, Intuitive Surgical, Inc., in collaboration with Siasun Robot & Automation, shows that the company's third-quarter revenue reached $2.51 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase; GAAP earnings per share were $2.40, higher than the $1.84 in the same period last year. The significant revenue growth of the company was mainly driven by the increase in the number of surgeries, the deployment of Da Vinci surgery systems, and the expansion of equipment installations. In Q3, the company deployed 427 Da Vinci systems and 50 Ion systems; the number of surgeries increased by about 20% year-on-year, with Da Vinci system surgeries increasing by about 19% and Ion system surgeries increasing by about 52%. As of the time of writing, Intuitive Surgical, Inc. rose over 17% pre-market on Wednesday. Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR (BCS.US) makes another provision of over 200 million for car loan reserves, but unexpectedly announces a buyback and raises full-year profit guidance. The bank announced an additional 235 million (approximately $314 million) provision to compensate car finance customers. At the same time, the bank raised its profit forecast for the year, stating that the return on tangible equity (RoTE) should be higher than 11%, compared to the previous estimate of about 11%; the forecast for full-year net interest income was also slightly raised to 12.6 billion. The bank also announced a 500 million stock buyback plan. As of the time of writing, Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR rose over 4% pre-market on Wednesday. AT&T (T.US) reports mixed Q3 performance, with new wireless customer additions far exceeding expectations. The financial report shows that AT&T's Q3 revenue was $30.7 billion, below the market's expectations of $30.87 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.54, essentially in line with market expectations. However, benefiting from bundled packages and aggressive promotions surrounding the launch of the latest iPhonehelping AT&T attract more customers in a competitive marketthe company added wireless subscribers well above market expectations. Data shows that AT&T added 405,000 monthly paid wireless subscriptions in Q3, exceeding the market's expected 334,100. Price increases offset the impact of main copper mine shutdown, with Teck Resources (TECK.US) reporting a nearly 20% increase in Q3 profits exceeding expectations. The financial report shows that the company's adjusted core profit for the third quarter increased to $1.17 billion Canadian dollars (approximately $836 million), higher than the $986 million Canadian dollars in the same period last year, thanks to the rise in copper and zinc prices and increased by-product income. Q3 revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to $3.38 billion Canadian dollars. The company stated that the nearly one-fifth increase in profits in the third quarter was due to the rise in metal prices offsetting the impact of production delays at its main copper mine in Chile. Short squeeze pushing, Beyond Meat (BYND.US) continues to surge! Following a 128% and 146% surge on Monday and Tuesday respectively, as of the time of writing, Beyond Meat rose nearly 75% pre-market on Wednesday. The rapid rise of the stock in this round is mainly attributed to a short squeeze after completing a debt-to-equity swap last week. Some analysts have stated that the recent price increase of Beyond Meat is clearly driven by a short squeeze rather than fundamental factors, as the current valuation of the stock already fully reflects its challenging transformation prospects. In addition, there is news that Beyond Meat and Walmart Inc. will increase the supply of some products in over 2,000 stores, with the company expected to overcome operational difficulties through this. Upcoming economic data and events 4:00 AM Beijing time the next day: Federal Reserve Governor Barkin speaks on "Financial Inclusion" Earnings forecast Thursday morning: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), IBM (IBM.US), Alcoa Corporation (AA.US), SAP (SAP.US), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX.US) Thursday pre-market: Nokia Oyj Sponsored ADR (NOK.US), STMicroelectronics NV ADR RegS (STM.US), Lloyds Banking Group (LYG.US), Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX.US), T-Mobile US (TMUS.US), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP.US), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV.US), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL.US)