Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Initial implementation of express delivery price increase in 25Q3 reflected on the revenue side, focusing on Q4 performance elasticity.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group released a research report stating that according to the September China Express Development Index report by the State Post Bureau, the express delivery volume in September is expected to increase by about 12% year-on-year, and express delivery revenue is expected to increase by about 7% year-on-year. Based on this calculation, the industry's single ticket income in September is 7.58 yuan/piece, a month-on-month increase of 3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22 yuan in income. In September, the anti-price competition trend in the express delivery industry continued to advance, with national express prices continuing to rise, leading to an increase in industry unit prices. According to the monthly operating report of express delivery companies, in July, the single ticket income of express delivery companies was relatively low, generally at a low level during the year, and improved month by month in August and September under the promotion of anti-price competition. In the third quarter, express delivery companies will initially realize profit recovery from the price increase, and continue to focus on the profit elasticity in the fourth quarter. Key Points from Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Event: Express delivery companies release September report In September, YTO Express Group completed a business volume of 2.627 billion pieces, an increase of 13.64% year-on-year, with a single ticket income of 2.21 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%; STO Express Co., Ltd. completed a business volume of 2.187 billion pieces in September, an increase of 9.46% year-on-year, with a single ticket income of 2.12 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.95%; YUNDA Holding Group completed a business volume of 2.1 billion pieces in September, an increase of 3.63% year-on-year, with a single ticket income of 2.02 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.50%. The growth rate of express delivery volume in September continued the trend of August, and the unit price of the industry increased significantly month-on-month under the promotion of anti-price competition. According to the September China Express Development Index report by the State Post Bureau, the express delivery volume in September is expected to increase by about 12% year-on-year, and express delivery revenue is expected to increase by about 7% year-on-year. Based on this calculation, the industry's single ticket income in September is 7.58 yuan/piece, a month-on-month increase of 3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22 yuan in income. In September, the anti-price competition trend in the express delivery industry continued to advance, with national express prices continuing to rise, leading to an increase in industry unit prices. The unit price of express delivery companies increased significantly month-on-month, and the business volume continued to grow. Change in unit price from a month-on-month perspective: YUNDA (+0.10 yuan) > YTO (+0.06 yuan) = STO (+0.06 yuan). The business volume continued to grow, with year-on-year growth rates of YTO (+13.6%) > STO (+9.5%) > YUNDA (+3.6%). It is expected that express delivery companies will initially realize profit recovery from the price increase in the third quarter, and focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter. According to the monthly operating report of express delivery companies, in July, the single ticket income of express delivery companies was relatively low, generally at a low level during the year, and improved month by month in August and September under the promotion of anti-price competition. In the third quarter, express delivery companies will initially realize profit recovery from the price increase, and continue to focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter. Anti-price competition in express delivery enters a new stage, focusing on the performance of third-quarter reports and peak season prices. In the short term, pay attention to the second round of price increases in grain-producing areas, peak season prices, and the third-quarter reports of express delivery companies. Shenwan Hongyuan Group makes three assumptions for the new stage of anti-price competition: 1) the industry's price bottom is eliminated, profits continue to recover, and eventually tend towards public utility, with a significant scale of bonuses while meeting the rights of express delivery personnel. 2) Many regions continue the previous competitive situation, leading to industry differentiation. 3) There is a possibility of higher-dimensional integration and mergers, optimizing the supply side. Regarding targets Recommended targets with greater flexibility include STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ), YTO Express Group (600233.SH) with continuously improving competitiveness, and Jitu Express (01519) benefiting from the high growth of Southeast Asian e-commerce and improving domestic profit expectations. Focus on ZTO Express (02057) and YUNDA Holding Group (002120.SZ). Risk Warning Industry price competition exceeds expectations; express delivery demand declines; major changes in industry structure; risks of rising labor costs.