With the help of chip exports, Japan's overall exports saw their first increase in five months, but trade with the United States has continued to decline for six months in a row.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday that exports in September increased by 4.2% year-on-year, the first expansion in five months, driven by an increase in shipments of chips and electronic components, as well as a rebound in mineral fuel exports. However, this growth was slightly lower than the economists' forecast of 4.4%. Exports to the United States fell by 13.3% year-on-year, shrinking for the sixth consecutive month; exports to the European Union grew by 5%, and exports to China grew by 5.8%. In terms of trade balance, Japan's unadjusted trade deficit in September reached 234.6 billion yen (about $15 billion), with imports increasing by 3.3% compared to the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of 0.6%. Chief economist Nambu Shi of the Research Institute of Central Finance and Economics pointed out that due to the impact of tariffs, exports of Japanese automobiles to the United States remain weak; on the other hand, the strength of the euro and the weakness of the yen have boosted Japan's exports to the European Union, and China's domestic demand stimulus policies have also boosted exports to China. It is understood that Japan's exports of semiconductor and other electronic components grew by 12.6% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from strong demand in Asia. In comparison, exports of automobiles and chips to the United States continue to be sluggish: although in mid-September, the United States reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, and maintained the same tariff rates for most other products, related shipments have not reversed their downward trend. Analysts estimate that in the three months ending in September, the impact of U.S. tariffs has caused the Japanese economy to contract on a quarter-on-quarter basis for the first time in six quarters, which may disrupt the benign cycle of inflation, wage growth, and economic growth that the Japanese government is trying to build. In terms of export destinations, the United States surpassed China by a slight margin in September, becoming Japan's largest export market. However, exports of Japanese automobiles to the United States declined by 24.2% in value, and by 14.1% in volume, indicating that Japanese car companies are still lowering prices and sacrificing profits to maintain market share. With the reduction of automobile tariffs, attention has shifted to the $550 billion investment mechanism promised in the July U.S.-Japan trade agreement. If Japan fails to implement project funding through this "investment tool," the Trump administration has the right to raise tariffs on Japanese goods again. Japan's trade surplus with the United States in September was 523.3 billion yen, which has been ongoing since Trump's second term began in January. Nambu Shi predicts: "The negative impact of U.S. tariffs will continue for some time, but the extent of the impact is not sufficient to shake the global economy. Once the impact subsides, there is still room for improvement in Japan's exports in the medium to long term." Trump is expected to visit Tokyo next week and hold talks with Japan's newly appointed Prime Minister Koizumi Naosuke. The subsequent interactions may further influence the direction of Japan-U.S. trade.