Revenue-free company worth over $25 billion! Analysts warn that the AI bubble will "definitely" burst.
Lauren Taylor Wolf, managing partner of Impactive Capital, pointed out that the artificial intelligence industry is currently in a bubble and will eventually burst.
Capital management partner Lauren Taylor Wolf pointed out that the artificial intelligence industry is currently in a bubble that will eventually burst. She compared the current AI investment frenzy to the late 1990s internet bubble period.
In an interview, she said, "We are definitely in an AI bubble. The bubble will burst. I don't know the exact timing, and I'm not sure of the extent of the burst, but many people will suffer heavy losses."
The analyst contrasted her long-term investment philosophy with the current AI market hype, explaining, "Patience and time are friends of long-term investors." Her investment strategy is to identify high-quality companies that are undervalued and misunderstood by the market, and then bridge the value gap through cooperation.
When discussing the current investment environment, she used the example of SPAC company Oklo Inc (OKLO.US), which focuses on small nuclear reactors under Sam Altman's leadership, to illustrate that the market has experienced irrational prosperity. "It is the largest component of the Russell 2000 value index. This company has had zero revenue for three years, and its market capitalization was $30 billion at the beginning of the year, but now it has reached $250 billion." She bluntly stated that this situation is "absurd to the extreme."
Wolf advised investors to focus on undervalued sectors instead of chasing AI concept stocks, drawing parallels to the experience of the internet bubble era, saying, "The best strategy back then was not to short bubble companies, but to discover neglected industries. Holding railroad company stocks in 2000 was far better than buying Cisco Systems, Inc. at 35 times earnings."
Her core concern lies in the severe disconnect between investment and returns in the AI field. "Trillions of dollars are being planned to be invested in the AI sector, while the seven tech giants are generating only hundreds of billions of dollars in free cash flow."
She questioned the financial sustainability of current AI investments: "Who can prove that trillions of dollars in profit can be generated in the next five years? It is simply not achievable, from a mathematical perspective."
Although recognizing the transformative nature of AI technology and its potential to change the economic and social landscape, and acknowledging that tech giants like Alphabet Inc. Class C and Amazon.com, Inc. may survive and thrive, Wolf maintains that when the market eventually corrects itself, many investors in the current AI bubble will face significant losses.
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