Tracking Hong Kong concept stocks | Global shipping giants collectively raise prices, airline profits may further increase (with concept stocks)

Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration of China announced the timetable plan for the 2025 winter-spring season, which will be officially implemented from October 26th. The domestic flight schedule has contracted for two consecutive seasons, with the reduction rate for 2024 and 2025 being 1.0% and 1.8% respectively. The average ticket price for domestic flights has increased by 5.9%, with a daily average passenger load factor of 87.9%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. At the same time, the international market has also entered a peak period after the summer travel season. The daily number of international passenger flights operated by Chinese and foreign airlines has exceeded 2000, an increase of 10.6% compared to the National Day holiday period in 2024. At this level of ticket prices and passenger load factor, airlines' profitability has significantly improved compared to the same period in 2024. In addition, starting from October 15th, global shipping giants such as MSC, Dafy, and Hapag-Lloyd collectively increased prices, with freight rates on multiple routes from the Far East to Europe, Africa, and South America being raised by 600-2000 US dollars per container. The shipping industry has emerged from several months of downturn and entered a period of structural rise. Analysts believe that behind this round of price increases are three factors: the tightening of port capacity in Europe and the United States, adjustments to shipping routes in the Red Sea and Africa, and global manufacturing industry restocking. Benefiting from the recovery in public and business demands, revenue levels have also improved recently. As for oil prices, the price of crude oil has been falling for three consecutive weeks, with the average price of aviation fuel in October down by 0.1% year-on-year. China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that civil aviation demand may benefit from fiscal policies, costs may benefit from lower oil prices, and there may still be pressure on exchange rates. According to data from Flight Manager, domestic ticket prices including fuel turned positive in weeks 36 to 41, with a growth of 3.0%. In addition, benefiting from the industry's "anti-inner roll" trend and continuous improvement of airlines' revenue management, coupled with a low base, Huatai believes that the increase in revenue levels is expected to continue in the fourth quarter and beyond. The decline in oil prices may help reduce cost pressures and help airlines realize profit elasticity. In addition, the appreciation of the RMB is also a major boost. Related Hong Kong stocks in the aviation sector: China Eastern Airlines (00670), China Southern Airlines (01055), Air China Limited (00753), CATHAY PAC AIR (00293)