Northbound funds | In the northern market, there was a net sell of 2.67 billion after China Life Insurance (02628) reported a profit increase, while Alibaba (09988) faced another wave of selling pressure.

In the Hong Kong stock market on October 20, the net selling by Northbound investors was 26.7 billion Hong Kong dollars. Among them, the net selling through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 22.86 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the net selling through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 3.84 billion Hong Kong dollars. The stocks with the most net buying by Northbound investors were CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033), CNOOC (00883), and China Life Insurance (02628). The stocks with the most net selling by Northbound investors were BABA-W (09988), XIAOMI-W (01810), and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981). Active trading stocks through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Active trading stocks through the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect CNOOC (00883) received a net buying of 162 million Hong Kong dollars. Morgan Stanley's latest research report pointed out that major data providers have unprecedented discrepancies in their estimates of OPEC's crude oil production, with a gap of up to 2.5 million barrels per day. The bank stated that OPEC's production increase plan is actually "in name only", the actual idle production capacity is much lower than expected, and global oil demand is stronger than commonly understood. The oil market may rebalance in the second half of 2027, and Brent crude oil is expected to rise to $65 per barrel at that time. China Life Insurance (02628) received a net buying of 137 million Hong Kong dollars. China Life Insurance announced positive earnings results, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 156.785 billion to 177.689 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of about 50% to 70%. Citigroup's research report stated that in the third quarter alone, the bank estimated that net profit would still increase by 75% to 106% year-on-year, to 115.9 billion to 136.8 billion yuan, mainly due to improvements in investment returns, increased equity investment allocation, optimization of asset allocation structure, and active investment in new productivity-related areas. Tencent (00700) received a net buying of 96.67 million Hong Kong dollars. Huatai stated that important short-term catalysts for Tencent come from "Delta Attack", with daily active users in September exceeding 30 million, gradually developing into Tencent's next-generation eternal shooting game. Huatai estimated that double-stream revenue in 2026 is expected to reach 12 billion to 18 billion yuan; AI-driven advertising business will continue to improve returns on investment (ROI), supporting its continued high growth trend, with accelerated launch and iteration of AI Agent products. TRANSTHERA-B (02617) received a net selling of 11.28 million Hong Kong dollars. After the market closed, announced that the board of directors has considered and approved the submission of an application to the China Securities Regulatory Commission to convert 44.9711 million shares held by 10 shareholders of the company into H shares, representing approximately 11.33% of the company's total issued shares. Upon obtaining all relevant approvals and complying with all applicable laws, regulations, and rules, these domestic shares will be converted into H shares and will be eligible for listing and trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Northbound funds once again sold chip stocks. HUA HONG SEMI (01347) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) were net sold for 329 million and 3.24 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively. On October 7, the US House of Representatives' "special committee" released an important report on China's semiconductor export controls, proposing nine recommendations to expand export restrictions. First Capital Securities previously released a research report stating that the penetration of export controls in semiconductors and rare earths between China and the US signals that trade friction has shifted to a confrontation over core technologies and raw materials, with the US implementing semiconductor export controls to accelerate the domestic industry chain's independent controllability and achieve domestic substitution. BABA-W (09988) was net sold for 1.753 billion Hong Kong dollars. Fitch released a report stating that Alibaba is expected to maintain a strong business condition and robust financial position. Its two major strategic areas, consumption, and AI and cloud services, are expected to expand in target markets and support steady long-term profit growth, despite its intentions to make trade-offs in the short term. Fierce competition in flash sales will drag down short-term profitability, but the bank expects the current price war to ease in the next 6-12 months. Growth capital expenditures for AI and cloud infrastructure are high, which will compress free cash flow profit margins, although Alibaba should be able to maintain its overall leverage ratio with significant net cash. In addition, CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033) received a net buying of 375 million Hong Kong dollars. Meanwhile, ZTE Corporation (00763), INNOVENT BIO (01801), and XIAOMI-W (01810) were net sold for 1.19 billion, 225 million, and 340 million Hong Kong dollars respectively.