Who Ultimately Pays for Trump’s Tariffs? Goldman Sachs Finds U.S. Consumers Will Shoulder Over Half the Cost

A report published by Goldman Sachs economists on October 12 indicates that, by year‑end, more than half of the economic burden from President Trump’s tariff measures will fall on U.S. consumers. The analysis, authored by economists including Elsie Peng and David Mericle, estimates that U.S. consumers will absorb 55% of the tariff costs, U.S. firms will bear 22%, foreign exporters will accept about 18% through price reductions, and roughly 5% will be evaded.

The report notes that firms may be temporarily bearing a larger share of the burden because price adjustments typically take time to pass through to end prices. Goldman Sachs states that if the price effects of recently imposed and forthcoming tariffs mirror those of earlier rounds this year, the ultimate distribution of cost would result in U.S. consumers carrying 55% of the total tariff impact.

Goldman Sachs further estimates that tariffs implemented so far have raised the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index by 0.44% year‑to‑date, and that broader tariff measures could elevate the inflation rate to about 3% by December, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai responded that the administration’s stance remains that while tariffs may create a temporary transitional period for U.S. consumers, the costs should ultimately be borne by foreign exporters. The statement also emphasized that companies are responding by diversifying supply chains and relocating production to the United States.

The report reiterates the mechanics by which tariffs affect prices: importers pay duties enforced by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and when firms seek to pass costs along, consumers face higher retail prices; alternatively, foreign suppliers may reduce prices to preserve market share, thereby absorbing a portion of the tariffs themselves.

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its prior projections in this latest analysis. In August, the firm estimated that through the end of June U.S. consumers had borne approximately 22% of the tariff cost and anticipated that share rising to 67%; the current report revises the expected eventual burden to 55%.

The firm’s August assessment drew public criticism from President Trump, who challenged Goldman Sachs and its CEO David Solomon for earlier market and tariff predictions, asserting those forecasts had been incorrect.