Preview of US Stock Market | Futures of the three major stock indexes are mixed, airline stocks are generally up before the market, and several Federal Reserve officials will speak.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market on October 9th (Thursday), the futures of the three major stock indexes in the US were mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures rose by 0.13%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.04%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 0.35%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.29%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.39%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.05%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 0.34% to $62.34 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.30% to $66.05 per barrel. Market News Pre-market concerns about a stock market bubble are intensifying, with traders buying insurance ahead of the earnings reports of tech giants. For investors in the US stock market, signs of a possible bubble seem to be apparent without much effort - the S&P 500 index has rebounded by 36% since its low in April, leading to valuations reaching levels comparable to previous periods of "excessive exuberance." As individual stock correlations remain low, the VIX index is slowly starting to rise. A break above 17 in the VIX index is considered a signal by derivative traders that institutional investors are concerned that any missteps in the AI-driven trading that has driven the market up this year could trigger a market-wide pullback. With a few weeks remaining before large tech companies like Apple Inc., Alphabet, Microsoft Corporation, and others release their earnings reports, derivative traders are increasing protective positions to guard against any underperformance by these companies. Quiet data may conceal hidden currents? Non-farm payrolls and CPI might ignite the market simultaneously! Traders are preparing hurriedly. The world's largest bond market is currently stagnant, but traders are preparing for a potential "storm" once the US government shutdown ends and a significant amount of key economic data is released. Once the statistical data resumes, this $30 trillion market is expected to experience a "bloodbath," and the government shutdown could complicate data collection. Options activity shows that traders are hedging risks for various scenarios that could potentially unfold before the end of the year, including the possibility of the Federal Reserve relaxing policies once again, and the challenge of determining whether overheating inflation or a cooling job market will present a greater challenge. Global central banks accelerate the withdrawal of $130 billion in two months! Is the cornerstone of global safe-haven assets shaking? A high-ranking official at the Canadian pension fund warns of concerns about the status of US Treasury bonds. The bond holdings held by central banks worldwide at the New York Fed have fallen to their lowest level in over a decade as gold prices repeatedly hit new highs. This has raised questions about the willingness of foreign investors to hold US sovereign debt and other assets priced in USD. Recent data, including the US Treasury's International Capital Flow Report (TIC) and the International Monetary Fund's "Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves" (Cofer) report, shows that demand for US Treasury bonds and USD assets in foreign markets remains strong. While these two sets of data are considered the "gold standard" for measuring US capital flows and global foreign exchange reserves, they are published with a long lag time. Is the cornerstone of global safe-haven assets shaking? A high-ranking official at the Canadian pension fund warns of concerns about the status of US Treasury bonds. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) has warned that if the US fiscal pressures continue to worsen, US Treasury bonds may lose their status as a safe-haven asset. Manulife Jutty, the head of the pension fund's overall fund management, said in an interview: "We are concerned that if the fiscal situation continues to deteriorate for an extended period of time," the US Treasury market may no longer possess its safe-haven properties. This warning comes as the US government is embroiled in a shutdown due to fiscal spending disputes, leading to increasing warnings about the future of the US dollar. Options trading volume triples! Hedge funds aggressively buying call options betting on USD strengthening by year-end. Hedge funds are showing a preference for the USD in the options market, betting that the rebound in the USD against most major currencies will continue until the end of the year. According to traders, fund companies have increased their options trading activity this week on the expectation that currencies such as the Euro and Yen will weaken against the USD. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group shows that during Wednesday's trading session, the trading volume of Euro-to-USD put options expiring before December reached three times the volume of call options- these options will increase in value as the currency pair falls. The increasing bullish bets on the USD in the options market may indicate that the period of currency weakness caused by the government shutdown has come to an end. Stock news Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL.US) Q3 earnings exceed expectations, raises full-year guidance. The earnings report shows that Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s Q3 adjusted revenue rose by 4.1% year-over-year to $15.2 billion, surpassing the expected $15.08 billion; the adjusted earnings per share were $1.71, higher than the expected $1.53, and higher than the $1.50 in the same period last year. For 2025, the company expects adjusted earnings per share to be $6, surpassing the expected $5.80, and close to the upper end of the previous guidance of $5.25 to $6.25; it expects full-year revenue to grow by 2% to 4%, compared to the previous guidance of 0% to 4%. As of the time of writing, Delta Air Lines, Inc. rose by more than 5% in pre-market trading on Thursday. Additionally, airline stocks in the US rose across the board before market opening. American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL.US), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL.US) rose by nearly 4%, JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU.US), Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK.US) rose by over 2%, and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV.US) rose by nearly 2%. PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP.US) Q3 earnings exceed expectations, reiterates full-year guidance. The earnings report shows that PepsiCo, Inc.'s Q3 revenue rose by 2.7% year-over-year to $23.94 billion, beating the expected $23.83 billion; the core earnings per share were $2.29, higher than the expected $2.26, but lower than the $2.31 in the same period last year. CEO Ramon Laguarta stated that revenue growth reflects the resilience of its international business and the improving momentum in its North American beverage division, as well as the measures taken by PepsiCo, Inc. to reshape its product portfolio. For the full year, PepsiCo, Inc. still expects organic revenue to grow by a low single-digit percentage, while earnings on a constant currency basis to be essentially flat compared to last year. In addition, the company announced the retirement of the current CFO on November 10th, with Steve Schmitt taking over. The AI trend continues, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) Q3 revenue exceeds expectations with a significant increase of 30%. Driven by continued investments by large US tech companies in artificial intelligence (AI), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR reported a 30% year-over-year increase in revenue in the third quarter. Based on the monthly sales data released by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, the company's total revenue reached NT$989.9 billion (approximately $32.5 billion) for the three months ending at the end of September, exceeding the average analyst expectations of NT$962.8 billion. With the long-term optimism for AI in the market, the stock price of this Asia-Pacific's largest company has risen by over 30% year-to-date. UK regulatory agency launches compensation plan for mis-selling car loans, Lloyds Banking Group plc Sponsored ADR (LYG.US) warns: may need to make additional provisions. Lloyds Banking Group plc Sponsored ADR stated on Thursday that following the launch of a compensation plan for mis-sold car loans by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, the bank may need to make additional provisions to compensate customers who were misled to purchase car loans. In a document, Lloyds Banking Group plc Sponsored ADR indicated that this amount could have a "substantial impact." Currently, the bank has set aside 1.15 billion (approximately $1.54 billion) to cover the costs related to refunds. As of the time of writing, Lloyds Banking Group plc Sponsored ADR fell by over 2% in pre-market trading on Thursday. Important Economic Data and Event Preview 8:30 PM Beijing time, Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending on October 4th 8:30 PM Beijing time, Fed Chair Powell delivers opening remarks at a community banking forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board 8:45 PM Beijing time, Fed Governor Bowman delivers a speech 12:45 AM Beijing time on the next day, Fed Governor Barkin speaks about economic prospects 1:00 AM Beijing time on the next day, Fed Governor Barkin and 2026 FOMC voter Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, speak at an event 1:00 AM Beijing time on the next day, 2025 FOMC voter Moslaim, St. Louis Fed President, speaks about the US economy and monetary policy Earnings Outlook Friday morning: Applied Digital (APLD.US)