Overnight US stocks | The three major indices are falling and New York gold futures are stabilizing at $4000.

On Tuesday, the three major indices fell. The S&P 500 index recorded its first decline in 8 trading days. The U.S. government shutdown entered its seventh day. Prior to this, the Senate failed to pass the bill proposed by the House five times to provide funding for the government until November 21, leading to hopes of reopening the government on Monday being dashed. [US Stocks] As of the close, the Dow fell 91.99 points, or 0.20%, to 46,602.98; the Nasdaq fell 153.30 points, or 0.67%, to 22,788.36; the S&P 500 index fell 25.69 points, or 0.38%, to 6,714.59. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) fell 4.4%, AMD (AMD.US) rose nearly 4%, Strategy (MSTR.US) fell 8.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon index fell 2.2%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) fell 3%, Baidu Inc Sponsored ADR Class A (BIDU.US) fell 4%. [European Stocks] The Germany DAX30 index fell 11.96 points, or 0.05%, to 24,384.27; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 2.06 points, or 0.02%, to 9,481.20; the France CAC40 index rose 3.07 points, or 0.04%, to 7,974.85; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 15.12 points, or 0.27%, to 5,613.60; the Spain IBEX35 index fell 51.60 points, or 0.33%, to 15,521.50; the Italy FTSE MIB index fell 64.13 points, or 0.15%, to 43,082.00. [Crude Oil] The price of light crude oil futures for delivery in November on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4 cents to $61.73 per barrel, up 0.06%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in December fell 2 cents to $65.45 per barrel, down 0.03%. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Report shows that the Brent price for 2025 is expected to be $68.64 per barrel, up from the previous expectation of $67.80 per barrel. The WTI crude oil price for 2025 is expected to be $65.00 per barrel, up from the previous expectation of $64.16 per barrel. The Brent price for 2026 is expected to be $52.16 per barrel, up from the previous expectation of $51.43 per barrel. The WTI crude oil price for 2026 is expected to be $48.50 per barrel, up from the previous expectation of $47.77 per barrel. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by over 2.2% to $121,941.8, Ethereum fell by over 4% to $4,499.63. Concept stocks in the crypto circle fell, with Strategy (MSTR.US) falling 8.7%, Coinbase (COIN.US) falling 2.67%, Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US) falling 6.36%. [US Dollar Index] The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.48% and closed at 98.578 in the forex market at the end of New York trading. As of the end of New York forex trading, 1 euro exchanged for $1.1658, down from $1.1713 the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for $1.3430, down from $1.3482 the previous trading day. 1 dollar exchanged for 151.83 yen, up from 150.30 yen the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 0.7981 Swiss francs, up from 0.7953 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 1.3951 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3952 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 9.4071 Swedish kronor, up from 9.3806 Swedish kronor the previous trading day. [Precious Metals] Spot gold continues to hit record highs, nearing $4,000 per ounce; New York gold futures broke through $4,000, closing at $4,004.4. Dean Smith, an analyst at FolioBeyond, said that the rise in gold prices reflects investors' increasing anxiety about U.S. assets. After nearly two months of steady gains, the price of New York gold futures has surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time. Smith said that this rise reflects investors' search for safe-haven assets outside the U.S. dollar or U.S. government bonds. He said, "Global markets are hedging their bets." He noted that investors are no longer sure if they are willing to tie their "prosperity and economic future so closely with" U.S. dollar assets. He pointed out that the uncertainty and risk behind the rise in gold value will take "years to resolve." [Macro News] New York Fed: Concerns about the state of the job market in September have increased slightly. The New York Federal Reserve released a report on Tuesday showing that Americans are more concerned about the future of the job market in September, while also raising their expectations for inflation in the near future. The latest consumer expectations survey from the Fed indicated that with the probability of unemployment rising, respondents are more likely to expect the overall unemployment rate for the year to be higher than in August. However, respondents also believe that if unexpected unemployment occurs, there will be a greater chance of finding a new job in the next three months. The Fed stated that at the moment of growing concerns about the future of the job market, American households are more optimistic about their current financial situation, while also "slightly" reducing their expectations for the coming year. As of September, due to varying views on future income and income levels, households reported a reduction in future spending expectations. Furthermore, the report found that one-year inflation rate expectations rose from 3.2% in August to 3.4% in September, while expectations for the three-year inflation rate remained stable at 3%. Expectations for the five-year inflation rate in September rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month. The report also noted that future food price expectations have risen to the highest level since March 2023. Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Major rate cuts could trigger high inflation. Federal Reserve official Kashkari warned on Tuesday that any significant rate cuts could pose risks of inflation. Kashkari stated, "You could see the economy generate high inflation. Essentially, if you try to push the pace of economic growth beyond its potential growth rate and the potential to generate pricing power, it will ultimately only lead to a broad-based increase in prices." He warned that given the slowing economic growth and ongoing inflation, the current economic data shows signs of stagnation. UK may partially relax stablecoin holding limits. The Bank of England is reportedly planning to exempt its proposed stablecoin holding limit rules, allowing cryptocurrency exchanges and other specific businesses to hold larger quantities of stablecoins. Reportedly, the Bank of England is expected to announce these stablecoin restrictions by the end of this year. Additionally, the Bank is expected to allow businesses to use stablecoins as settlement assets in its "digital securities sandbox" to observe the operation of stablecoins while evaluating the prospects of this technology. A report on September 15 indicated that several cryptocurrency companies are lobbying the Bank of England to reconsider its stablecoin holding restrictions. These companies believe that such limitations put the UK at a disadvantage as its regulation of the stablecoin industry is stricter than that of the U.S. or EU. The Bank of England previously planned to set the threshold for individual stablecoin holdings at 10,000 to 20,000, with the limit for business holdings at 10 million. Bank reserves continue to decline, indicating the Federal Reserve may be close to ending balance sheet reduction. The U.S. money market has been consistently under pressure, and bank reserves held by the Federal Reserve are gradually decreasing, indicating that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its balance sheet reduction. Since early September, the overnight financing market between banks and asset management companies has been volatile. The stubbornly high short-term interest rates have steadily risen as the Treasury replenishes its cash reserves. The spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Federal Funds Effective Rate has nearly reached its widest level since the end of 2024. The latest data shows that bank reserves have fallen to just under $3 trillion, the lowest level since January. WTO: Trump's tariffs expected to drag down trade growth until 2026. The World Trade Organization stated that after experiencing unexpectedly strong growth in the first half of 2025, global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow significantly next year, reflecting delays in international trade due to President Trump's tariff policies. The WTO said in a report on Tuesday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, far higher than its previous forecast of 0.9% growth in August. The magnitude of the upward revision is almost equivalent to the downward revision for 2026: growth is now expected to be only 0.5%, compared to the previous forecast of 1.8%. The WTO stated that these different outlooks indicate that Trump's tariffs on imports of goods by country and sector may be delayed until next year before being fully implemented. Due to declining exports, Canada's trade deficit in August widened more than expected. Official statistics released by the Canadian government on Tuesday showed that Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened to C$6.32 billion (about $4.53 billion) in August as the pace of export value and volume declined faster than the monthly increase in imports. The trade deficit in August expanded for the first time since April, mainly due to a decline in exports to the country's largest trading partner, the United States, as well as a decrease in exports to other regions of the world in August. Statistics Canada reported that total exports declined by 3%, while imports increased by 0.9%. Exports to the U.S. in August were C$44.18 billion, down 3.4% from July, primarily due to a drop in exports of raw gold. However, other categories also contributed to the decline in exports, including lumber, machinery, and equipment. EU plans to strengthen steel protection measures: Imposing 50% tariffs to support the industry. The European Union announced new tariffs aimed at protecting its ailing steel industry on Tuesday. The European Commission proposed imposing a 50% tariff on all steel imports above the quota, which is twice the current tariff, while the quota will be reduced by about 45%. European Commissioner for Industry Stephane Sejourne said, "This is a very tough provision with no equivalent in Europe." He stated that once implemented, only about 10% of the steel used in the EU market will be exempt from tariffs. Currently, the EU imposes a 25% tariff on most steel imports after the quota is exceeded. However, this mechanism is temporary and will expire next year, prompting the European Commission to develop more long-term protection measures. The new measures will reduce the total quota for all steel categories to 18.35 million tons per year, approximately 45% lower than the current quota level. The plan will also set quotas for specific product types based on historical averages. [Stock News] TD Cowen: Lowered Netflix's (NFLX.US) target price from $1,450 to $1,425. Jefferies Financial Group Inc.: Upgraded AMD (AMD.US) from Hold to Buy, raised the target price from $170 to $300; lowered Blackstone Inc.'s (BX.US) target price from $207 to $199; raised BlackRock, Inc.'s (BLK.US) target price from $1,196 to $1,325. HSBC: Initiated coverage of Alphabet Inc. Class C parent company Alphabet (GOOGL.US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $285.