Cinda: Anti-inner circle policies may bring a dual inflection point.

Cinda releases research report stating that the core of the current anti-inward corn policy in various industries is focused on capacity regulation and price guidance, and the anti-inward corn policy may create a dual inflection point. Firstly, the "anti-inward corn" is expected to push the inflection point of excess capacity downwards; secondly, as the process of resolving excess capacity accelerates, the PPI is also expected to reach an upward inflection point. However, it is important to note that during the "anti-inward corn" process, there may be a temporary decline in the growth momentum of the manufacturing industry. To simultaneously achieve the goal of stable growth, complementary demand-side policy tools are also required. With effective measures to expand demand, the continuous implementation of the current "anti-inward corn" policy is expected to provide support for the bull market in the capital market. Cinda's main points are as follows: From policy guidance to gradual implementation, the starting point of the current "anti-inward corn" policy can be traced back to the meeting of the Central Political Bureau of the CPC in July 2024, where for the first time it was explicitly mentioned to prevent "inward corn" vicious competition; by December 2024, the policy focus gradually shifted from initial risk warning to specific rectification actions. Since the beginning of this year, "anti-inward corn" has not only become a frequent topic of high-level meetings, but related supporting policies have also further reached the level of executable actions, specifically covering measures such as the construction of a unified large market and stable growth plans in ten major industries, laying the foundation for the subsequent implementation at the industry level through the gradual refinement of policies. Different industries may have different ways of anti-inward corn, but they are always centered around capacity regulation and price guidance. The focus of anti-inward corn measures may vary across different industries, but overall, the current implementation of anti-inward corn policy can be summarized into three main directions: controlling the addition of capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and encouraging mergers and reorganizations. Among them, controlling the addition of capacity aims to curb disorderly expansion from the source, eliminating outdated capacity focuses on optimizing the structure of existing capacity, and encouraging mergers and reorganizations can to some extent alleviate the problem of vicious price pressure. These measures are mainly focused on capacity regulation and price guidance. The anti-inward corn policy may lead to a dual inflection point. As analyzed earlier, the core of the current implementation of the anti-inward corn policy in various industries is focused on capacity regulation and price guidance. We believe that the anti-inward corn policy may create a dual inflection point. Firstly, the "anti-inward corn" is expected to push the inflection point of excess capacity downward; secondly, as the process of resolving excess capacity accelerates, the PPI is also expected to reach an upward inflection point. However, it is important to note that during the "anti-inward corn" process, there may be a temporary decline in the growth momentum of the manufacturing industry. To simultaneously achieve the goal of stable growth, complementary demand-side policy tools are also required. With effective measures to expand demand, the continuous implementation of the current "anti-inward corn" policy is expected to provide support for the bull market in the capital market. Risk factors: The progress of "anti-inward corn" is lower than expected, sudden geopolitical risks, and historical patterns may fail, etc.